Cajun Sports

The Boston Celtics return home after allowing the Milwaukee Bucks to even the series by winning both contests on their home floor. Although they needed a big play with just a few ticks left on Big Ben to secure their Game Four victory as Giannis Antetokounmpo tipped in the winning basket with 5.1 seconds left on the clock to give the Bucks a series tying win 104 to 102 over the Celtics. Boston did not have much trouble with the Bucks in the opening two games of the series which were played here so we expect the Celtics to take care of business on their home floor on Tuesday night. The Bucks have had trouble on the road especially as an underdog they are only 4-12 ATS in that role failing to cover the spread by almost six-points per game (-5.72). Celtics shooting guard Jaylen Brown continues to pick up the slack with Irving’s absence from the lineup. Brown has thirty-four points with eight rebounds and three steals in their Game Four loss. That was Jaylen Brown’s second thirty-point effort of the series he made five three-pointers in two of the last three games while averaging a team-best 23.8 points per game in the series. Celtics point guard Terry Rozier will need to pick his game up if the Celtics hope to get the Game Five win over the Bucks. Rozier averaged just 9.5 points per game in the two losses in Milwaukee shooting a very poor five of nineteen from the field. His poor play came on the heels of outstanding play in the opening two games where he averaged twenty-three points per game over that span and outplayed Bucks veteran Eric Bledsoe. The word out of the Celtics camp tell us they fully expect Bledsoe to get off early and set the tone for the rest of the game he has said his performance hurt the team and he is not going to repeat that tonight. Our adjusted splits have the Celtics with a 6.14 point advantage on the offensive end of the floor while on the defensive end they really hold the advantage with an 8.03 point advantage. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 11.93 points in favor of the Celtics. The MM projects a point differential of +8.85 points against the current line range of -3.0 to -5.5. The SIM Matrix has the Celtics with a 74.02 percent advantage against the spread in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has the Celtics with an offensive-defensive differential of 7.98 with a transitional average of 41.33. We want to play ON NBA home favorites coming off a game as an underdog in which their opponent shot over 50 percent from the field. This system has a record of 126-98 ATS (56.2%). The Celtics will use their home floor advantage as well as their experience in situations like this to get a huge victory over the Bucks in Game Five on Tuesday night.

The Oakland Athletics are in Texas playing a three-game set against the host Texas Rangers. We used Oakland as our 3* Complimentary Selection on Tuesday night and they came through with the win as they defeated the Rangers 9 to 4 behind a Marcus Semien tie-breaking homerun. The A’s belted fourteen hits in last night’s victory winning for the seventh time in their last eight trips to the diamond. Oakland has a record of 29-18 SU (+1568) since September of last year. They are a solid 39-18 SU (+1651) as a favorite dating all the way back to the 16 campaign and 20-6 SU (+1308) as a road favorite dating way back to the 15 campaign. The Rangers will send left-hander Cole Hamels to the bump with his 1-3 SU record and his ERA of 4.76 in hopes he can slow the A’s train down on Tuesday night. Hamels has a career record of 3-3 SU with an ERA of 4.11 and a WHIP of 1.543 in eight career starts versus the A’s. Hamels is coming off a rough outing against the Rays on Wednesday. He looked good retiring fifteen of the first seventeen batters he faced but left the mound after allowing four runs over 6 1/3 innings of work in a 4 to 2 loss. Texas is 4-8 SU over their last twelve trips to the diamond. The A’s will send right-hander Andrew Triggs to the hill with his 1-0 SU record and his ERA of 5.82 on the season. Triggs is 1-0 SU with an ERA of 1.08 and a WHIP of 0.660 in three career starts. His team is 2-1 SU behind him when he faces the Rangers over his career. Back on April 2 Triggs took the mound against this Rangers team allowing one run striking out seven over five innings of work in their 3 to 1 victory. Triggs is coming off a horrible outing last Wednesday where he allowed six runs on five hits with two free passes in just 1 and a 1/3 innings of work. He was not as sharp in that outing as he has been in his previous three starts in which he allowed two or fewer runs in each of the three trips to the hill. We look for Triggs to bounce back with a solid outing here we do not have a rematch of the pitchers in this game in the first meeting Triggs was opposed by Colon. Our TPR Index projects a run advantage of 1.57 runs in favor of the Athletics. Our next set of metrics gives us an overall Pitchers Power Rating based on the situation. In this matrix Cole Hamels has an average for this game of 87 and Andrew Triggs comes into this game with an average of 106 compared to the league average of 100. The higher the pitchers average the better they should perform in the current situation. Our BHOR (Bases, Hits, Outs and Runs) Matrix has a projected advantage of 1.64 runs in favor of the Athletics in this contest. Our SIM Matrix has the Oakland Athletics with a 73.46 percent advantage against the Texas Rangers on Tuesday night. Our Momentum Matrix has Oakland trending in positive territory with a solid game average of .698 compared to Texas who is consistently trending in negative territory. The story for the Rangers has been they cannot win at home they average scoring just 3.6 runs per game with a batting average of .233 while allowing 6.6 runs per game with their opponents’ batting .301 against them at home. The Rangers bullpen has a home ERA of 6.47 and a WHIP of 1.649 this season. The Momentum Matrix has the Rangers with a game average of .398 which is one of the worst we have seen this season. It is hard to win games when you cannot hit the ball and score runs and then add to that you cannot stop your opponent from hitting and scoring. We have two systems that are active for tonight’s game and each system has a more recent record showing how profitable they have been recently. We want to play ON MLB favorites coming off a win as a favorite in which they never trailed and their bullpen allowed fewer than three runs. This system has a record of 762-492 SU for 60.8 percent winners and a profit of +2733 Units. We want to play on MLB road favorites coming off a win as a favorite in which they never trailed and their bullpen allowed fewer than three runs. This system has a record of 268-165 SU for 61.9 percent winners and a profit of +3713 Units the last 433 qualifying contests. We want to play ON MLB road favorites when they are coming off a win in which they left at last eighteen men on base, as long as they were not a 180+ underdogs in that win. This system has a record of 582-408 SU for 58.8 percent winners and a profit of +3172 Units. We want to play ON MLB road favorites when they are coming off a win in which they left at last eighteen men on base, as long as they were not a 180+ underdogs in that win. This system has a record of 106-57 SU for 65 percent winners and a profit of +2938 Units the last 163 qualifying contests. With solid support from all primary and secondary matrix averages as well as strong fundamental support for the visitors we will back the A’s on Tuesday night in Texas.

Cajun-Sports continue to dominate on the diamond ranked first in win percentage (69.2%) at the Sports Watch Monitor in Las Vegas. The Oakland Athletics are in Texas to take on American League foe Texas Rangers on Monday night. We have used the Athletics on multiple occasions already this season we do that when we have value on them based on our numbers. Our TPR Index projects a run advantage of 1.42 runs in favor of the Athletics. Our BHOR (Bases, Hits, Outs and Runs) Matrix has a projected advantage of 1.56 runs in favor of the Athletics in this contest. The Rangers are 9-23 SU since September of last year for a profit of +909 units when playing against them. Texas has posted a record of 27-42 SU for a profit of +1735 units when playing against them in Texas. With solid numbers and tech elements supporting the A’s in this game make it an easy call to play on the Oakland Athletics on Monday night.

The Kansas City Royals are in Detroit playing a four-game weekend set against the host Tigers with the final game on Sunday afternoon. The Tigers offense was rolling on Saturday defeating the Royals 12 to 4 to take a 2 games to 1 lead in the four-game set. The Royals will send left-hander Eric Skoglund to the bump with his 0-2 SU record and his ERA of 9.31 on the year. Skoglund has struggled through his first two trips to the hill, right-handed batters are a problem for him as you can see by their average against his which is .382 this season. Skoglund opened the 18 campaign against Seattle who scored five runs on six hits over 4 2/3 innings of work in the 8 to 3 loss to the Mainers. He took the mound again on Tuesday and the Blue Jays repeated the process by scoring five runs on eight hits in just five innings versus Skoglund. The Tigers will send Francisco Liriano to the hill with his 2-1 SU record and his ERA of 2.55 on the season. Liriano makes his fourth start and his second against Kansas City, having beaten them in his season debut with 6 2/3 innings of one-run ball. He tossed another quality start in his next outing but unfortunately took the loss despite working six innings allowing just two runs over that span. In his last outing he tossed five innings allowing just two earned runs in the 4 to 2 victory over the Orioles. Our TPR Index projects a run advantage of 1.68 runs in favor of the Tigers. Our next set of metrics gives us an overall Pitchers Power Rating based on the situation. In this matrix Eric Skoglund has an average for this game of 88 and Francisco Liriano comes into this game with an average of 112 compared to the league average of 100. The higher the pitchers average the better they should perform in the current situation. Our BHOR (Bases, Hits, Outs and Runs) Matrix has a projected advantage of 1.73 runs in favor of the Tigers in this contest. The Royals have really struggled in the role of underdog with a record of 9-34 SU winning just twenty percent of the time in this role producing a profit of +2016 units when playing against them in the role of underdog. Kansas City is just 15-27 SU winning just thirty-five percent of the time on the road producing a profit of +888 units when playing against them in this situation. The Royals are 7-21 SU winning just twenty-five percent of the time as a road underdog producing a profit of +1026 units when playing against them. We want to play AGAINST weekend road underdogs of +140 to +200 as long as it is not the first game of a series. This system has a record of 904-1778 SU (33.7%) for a profit of +16,437 units. We want to play ON MLB home favorites coming off a home win in which their bullpen was used and did not allow a run. This system has a record of 913-607 SU (60.1%) for a profit of +2439 units. We want to play ON MLB favorites coming off a win as a favorite in which they never trailed and their bullpen allowed fewer than three runs. This system has a record of 758-491 SU (60.7%) for a profit of +2493 units. We want to play ON MLB teams in the last game of a series as a 135-plus favorite off a game as a favorite in which they had 12-plus hits. This system has a record of 521-293 SU (64%) for a profit of 2889 units. With solid support for the Tigers we will lay the chalk with them on Sunday as they take this series 3 games to 1.

The Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks face off early Sunday afternoon with the Bucks looking to even the series at two games apiece before the series moves back to Boston on Tuesday. The Bucks have really picked up their defensive intensity in an effort to get back into this series after dropping both games in Boston. In Boston the Bucks allowed an average of 116.5 points per game in those first two series meetings one of which did go into overtime but the Bucks held the Celtics to just forty percent shooting and forced eighteen turnovers in their Game Three victory on Friday with a final score in that game 116 to 92. We expect the Bucks to once again step up on the defensive end of the floor in today’s game with one difference than in Game Three we expect the Celtics to do the same in Game Four. With both teams knowing that playing solid defense is something they can control unlike sinking baskets they do not always go in but defensive intensity always pays dividends especially in the playoffs. We have key people from both camps emphasizing the importance of intensity. "The activity, if you take the stat sheet out of it, the activity and the energy that we brought ... as you go through the game, that's what you need, is the energy first," interim coach Joe Prunty told reporters. "I think that we learned that the level – the intensity – that is playing in the playoffs on the road (is heightened)," Horford said. "I feel like it was just a different level of intensity and we all saw it. We felt it." Our TPR Index projects a total point average of 196.77 points. The MM projects a total point differential of -8.31 points with a total range of 203.0 to 205.5. The SIM Matrix has the Under with a 73.24 percent advantage against the total in today’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has the Under with an offensive-defensive differential of -8.79 against the oddsmakers total today. The Momentum Matrix has the Celtics and Bucks on the low side of the total with the Celtics average of -4.53 against their projected game points total while the Bucks are close behind with an average of 4.46 below their projected game points total. The combination of their Momentum averages has them going Under the posted total by -8.99 points. Even though this series has seen the Over as the play in Milwaukee we are going to play into those trends and play this one to come up short of the oddsmakers total today. We note the Bucks are an almost perfect 1-13 Under as a home favorite off a home game in which they shot over 50% from the field and it is after the All-Star break. With strong situational support as well as powerful fundamental splits with the defensive side carrying the majority here we will play the low side on Sunday afternoon in Milwaukee. Under

The Chicago Cubs are in the Mile High City taking on the host Colorado Rockies on Saturday night in Game Two of their three-game weekend set. The Cubs took Game One on Friday with ease winning 16 to 5 over a troubled Rockies team. The Cubs Javier Baez continued his hot hitting with four hits including a two-run homerun in the win. Kyle Schwarber left the yard and that HR was part of a three-hit night as six players recorded at least two hits for the Cubs in the Game One victory. Colorado was in need of some offense and they benefitted from the return of Nolan Arenado who left the yard with a two-run shot on the first pitch he saw upon his return from a five-game suspension. Other than that the Rockies managed nothing else at the plate. Colorado is a meager 2-5 SU at home this season averaging just 3.57 runs per game. It is easy to evaluate the Rockies home offense when they have a run average per game below 4.00 at the launching pad. The Cubs will send right-hander Yu Darvish to the bump with his 0-1 SU record and his ERA of 6.00 this season. The Rockies will counter with left-hander Tyler Anderson who is 0-0 SU this season with an ERA of 4.74. Our TPR Index projects a run advantage of 1.58 runs in favor of the Cubs. Our next set of metrics gives us an overall Pitchers Power Rating based on the situation. In this matrix Tyler Anderson has an average for this game of 106 and Yu Darvish comes into this game with an average of 130 compared to the league average of 100. The higher the pitchers average the better they should perform in the current situation. Our BHOR (Bases, Hits, Outs and Runs) Matrix has a projected advantage of 1.65 runs in favor of the Cardinals in this contest. MLB road favorites when they are coming off a win in which they left at last eighteen men on base, as long as they were not 180+ underdogs in that win. This system has a record of 579-408 (58.7) and most recently it has a record of 103-57 SU (64.4) for a profit of +2651 units. With a huge advantage on the bump and an overall advantage at the dish we will lay the chalk with the visiting Chicago Cubs on Saturday night in the Mile High City.

The Minnesota Twins are in Cigar City for a weekend set against the host Tampa Bay Rays with Game One set for Friday night. The Twins have been on a strange trip the last week or so with four of their games postponed due to poor weather during the second week of April followed by a two game series as the home team but the games were played in San Juan Puerto Rico with the last game of that series needing sixteen innings to decide the winner. Jose Berrios threw seven shutout innings, and seven Twins relievers pitched a combined nine innings, giving up one run on nine hits before Ryan LaMarre won the game with a walk-off single in the 16th. The Twins will send rught-hander Lance Lynn to the bump with his 0-1 SU record and his ERA of 5.00 on the season. Lynn is 0-1 SU in his two starts versus Tampa Bay with an ERA of 2.03 but a WHIP of 1.350. His team’s record with him on the hill versus Tampa Bay is 0-2 in his two career starts. The Rays will counter with right-hander Chris Archer who is 1-1 SU on the season with an ERA of 7.84. Archer has struggled this season but he has drawn the perfect team to help him get well. Chris Archer is 6-1 SU in his career versus the Twins with an ERA of 1.84 over that span. That is the lowest ERA for any opponent he has faced more than twice. Last year Archer was sent to the hill against the Twins he tossed seven and two-thirds innings striking out eleven holding the Twins to two runs on five hits. Our TPR Index projects a run advantage of 1.48 runs in favor of the Rays. Our next set of metrics gives us an overall Pitchers Power Rating based on the situation. In this matrix Lance Lynn has an average for this game of 79 and Chris Archer comes into this game with an average of 122 compared to the league average of 100. The higher the pitchers average the better they should perform in the current situation. Our BHOR (Bases, Hits, Outs and Runs) Matrix has a projected advantage of 1.55 runs in favor of the Rays in this contest. Our MLB SIM Matrix has the Tampa Bay Rays with a 72.88 percent advantage over the Minnesota Twins in Game One on Friday night. The Momentum Matrix has the Rays qualified in a Reverse situation with the Twins trending into negative territory even though they have won four of their last five games and the Rays are 2-3 SU over their last five trips to the diamond. The Momentum Matrix has the Twins with a -2.05 run average while the Rays come in trending in positive territory and a projected run average advantage of +1.94 runs. We want to play AGAINST MLB teams as an underdog when they are coming off a night game win in which they came back from a deficit. This system has a record of 499-711 SU for a profit of +2065 Units when playing against these underdogs. We want to play AGAINST MLB road underdogs coming off a home game in which they struck out at least ten times and had more than one hit. This system has a record of 116-216 SU for a profit of +4713 Units when playing against these road underdogs. We also see the Twins are 10-25 SU as a road underdog producing a profit of +989 Units when playing against them in this role. With solid support on the bump and key tech elements in our pocket we will back the Rays in Cigar City on Friday night as they grab a Game One victory over the Twins.