Cajun Sports

[AMAZON] The Fish make the trip to the Queen City on Thursday night working on a short week and coming off a huge upset victory. They also have a banged-up quarterback who is listed as questionable and wide receiver in Waddle who is suffering from a groin injury and is also listed as questionable but is expected to play. The situation does not favor the 3-0 Fins after their upset victory over the Bills. There are several factors involved in this situation. We mentioned the injuries and the short week, but the Dolphins defense was on the field for the ninety offensive plays run by the Bills which accounted for 40.4 minutes of possession time the Bills racked up. The Miami offense ran just 39 plays on offense and had just 19.2 minutes of possession time in the win. If you had not seen the score of the game and just looked at the stats, you would certainly think the Bills blew out the Fins in that game. The Bills only punted the football one time in the loss. The correct assumption regarding the game might be to say the Fins stole that one. Although winning teams find a way to win tough games that was a bit more than just a tough game. Miami allowed 497 yards of total offense allowing the Bills to convert 11 of 18 third downs and two of three fourth down conversions. Buffalo was without six defensive starters due to various injuries and still for the most part shut down the Miami offense. Miami had just 212 yards of total offense in the win over Buffalo. Tonight, that Miami offense will face a Bengals defense that is allowing 18.3 points per game allowing an average of 324 yards of total offense per game. The Bengals got their first win of the season last week against a poor Jets team. In that game though they forced two fumbles and two interceptions with DT BJ Hill grabbing both fumble recoveries in the win. The Striped Ones shutdown the Jets offense in the redzone not allowing them to score on either occasion. The Bengals defense have not allowed a touchdown to their opponents in their last twenty offensive drives. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 11.21 points. The MM projects a point differential of +6.59 points against the current line range in this contest. The OFF-DEF splits have a projected point differential of +6.05 in favor of the Striped Ones. The SIM Matrix has Cincinnati with a 72.34 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number in tonight’s game. With solid support for the home team, we will lay the short price with the Striped Ones as they hand the Fins their first loss of the 22 campaign. BENGALS

We picked up another nice MLB Free Selection winner last night with the Cleveland Guardians. Tonight, we are backing the Texas Rangers in their game against the Seattle Mariners. Seattle continues to struggle losers in five of their last seven games and three of their last four. The Mariners will hang their hopes tonight on Marco Gonzales who has a record of 10-15 with an ERA of 4.05. His recent starts have seen him allow at least three runs per game in four of his last five on the bump. Against this Rangers team he has given up a dozen runs in his last three starts versus Texas. The Rangers will counter with Jon Gray who is 7-7 on the year with an ERA of 3.64. Over his last three trips to the mound, he allowed just four runs total and in his last two starts away from home he has given up just three runs total over that stretch. Our TPR Index projects a run advantage of 1.6 runs in favor of the Rangers. Coming into this game and situation Jon Gray has a rating of 109 while Gonzales has a rating of 87 with a league average of 100. As evidenced by those numbers Gray holds a significant advantage over Gonzales in the SP Power Index with Gonzales well below the league average. The SIM Matrix has Texas with a 67.7 percent advantage over the Mariners tonight. With solid support on the bump and at the plate for the visiting team we will back the boys from Texas on Thursday night in Seattle. RANGERS NFL on a 7-3-1 run and 43-16-1 the last 60 NFL Best Bets. Make sure you join them on the gridiron Thursday night for their NFL Top Ticket Major Weekday GOW.

[ESPN] The Utah State Aggies hit the road for a Thursday night battle against the host Cougars of BYU. The Aggies are coming off their third straight loss falling to UNLV last Saturday 34 to 24. In that game Aggies QB Logan Bonner tossed five interceptions to give him eight for the young season. Utah State behind Bonner is averaging just 15.5 points per game on 345 yards of total offense. On the defensive side Utah State allows an average of 36 points per game on 411 yards of total offense by their opponents. BYU bounced back after suffering their first loss of the season by defeating the Cowboys of Wyoming 38 to 24. The Cougars average 33.5 points per game on 457 yards of total offense on the season. BYU rushes for an average of 161 yards per game while their aerial attack averages just under three-hundred yards per game with an average of 296. The Cougars defense has allowed an average of 26.5 points per game on 324 yards of total offense by their opponents. Our numbers project the lower side of both teams average for total points scored in tonight’s contest. The TPR Index projects a game point total average of 54.06 points. The MM projects a total point differential of -6.31 against the current total range. The SIM Matrix has the UNDER with a 72.2 percent advantage against the oddsmakers total. The projected OFF-DEF splits have the UNDER with a significant advantage. The combined average for both teams from the OFF-DEF splits has a projected game total average of -6.05 against the oddsmakers total. With solid support for the low side of the oddsmakers total we will play this one to come up well short of that number. UNDER

The Arizona Diamondbacks are in Houston playing the final game of a mini two-game set on Wednesday night. The Astros took Game One on Tuesday night winning 10 to 2. The Snakes will send Zac Gallen to the bump with his 12-3 record and his ERA of 2.46 on the season. Gallen is coming off a tough loss his last time out tossing eight innings of two hit one run ball in a 2 to 1 loss to the Dodgers. The Astros send their own ace to the mound in Justin Verlander who has amassed a record of 17-4 on the year while producing an unbelievable ERA of just 1.82. Verlander is also coming off a tough outing in his last start. He went six innings allowing six hits giving up two runs in the Astros 2 to 0 loss to Baltimore. With both starters coming off tough outings we expect both to be sharp as they try and get their team a win. Our BbPPI (Baseball Pitcher Performance Index) projects a QS for both pitchers in tonight’s game. It also has a projected combined run differential of -1.78 below the oddsmakers total. Our TPR Index projects a run total of 4.01 runs. The Teams MM Ratings have the Diamondbacks offense producing a run total of -1.19 below their projected runs for this contest. The Astros offense producing a run total of -1.05 below their projected run for this contest. The SIM Matrix has the UNDER with a 73.99 percent advantage against the oddsmakers total. We want to play Under with MLB favorites when they are coming off a game in which they scored in at least five separate innings, and it is the last game of their current series, 160-214-19 Under (57.2%) (+$3,800). With solid support on the bump from both teams and strong situational support for the low side we will play this one to come up well short of the oddsmakers number Wednesday night in Houston. UNDER

We picked up a nice MLB Free Selection winner last night with the St. Louis Cardinals. Tonight, we are backing the Cleveland Guardians as they play host to the boys from Cigar City the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays took Game One of this three-game set winning 6 to 5. The Guardians will give the ball to Triston McKenzie tonight. McKenzie is having a career year when it comes to ERA with a 3.04 while tossing a career-high 180.1 innings. Over his last nine starts he has allowed three or fewer runs. In his last three starts he has tossed at least seven innings while allowing a combined two runs over that span. The Rays will send Tyler Glasnow to the bump as he makes his first appearance of the 22 campaign. He will make his return from Tommy John surgery during the offseason. Glasnow’s career has been marred by injury tossing over one-hundred innings in a season just one time over his seven-year career. The Rays are certainly hoping for the best with him as he makes his return to their starting rotation. Our TPR Index projects a run advantage of 1.4 runs. The SIM Matrix has the Guardians with a 67.4 percent advantage over the Rays tonight. Play ON MLB home favorites coming off a one run loss where they had more than five hits and it is not the first game of a series, 250-128 (66%) (+$5,373) including a remarkable 22-4 SU record the last twenty-six qualifying contests. Simple call here as Cleveland bounces back from their Game One loss with win tonight. GUARDIANS We are on a 16-3 run in MLB and 40-20-2 the last 62 MLB Best Bets. Make sure you join us on the diamond Wednesday night for our MLB Top Ticket TOTAL Best Bet.

The Red Birds are in Milwaukee for a mid-week mini two-game series against the Brewers. They are coming off a tough west coast swing that saw them win just two of the six games played against the Friars and Dodgers. The Cardinals will send Miles Mikolas to the bump knowing in his four starts this month he has posted an ERA of 2.52 with a WHIP of 0.96. His win/loss record does not reflect how well he has pitched during September. The Red Birds will send Adrian Houser to the mound with his record of 6-9 and an ERA of 4.62 on the season. Houser has pitched better this month he has an ERA of 2.89 over his four starts in September. The bad news he has managed to pitch five innings just once over that span which means the Brewers bullpen has been called upon to pitch four plus innings when Houser takes the bump. Our TPR Index projects a run advantage of 1.3 runs in favor of the boys from St. Louis. The SIM Matrix has the Cardinals with a 62.4 percent advantage over the Brewers tonight. Play Against MLB home teams off a loss to a division rival as a favorite when they have a winning record and face an opponent with a winning record. These home teams are 133-162 SU the last five seasons for a profit of +$64.8 units. With solid support for the visitors, we will back them in this situation as they take Game One of this series Tuesday night. CARDINALS We are on a 16-2 run in MLB and 40-19-2 the last 61 MLB Best Bets. Make sure you join us on the diamond Tuesday night for our MLB Top Ticket TOTAL Best Bet.

The Baltimore Orioles are in Boston, and they will take the field Tuesday night for Game Two of this series. Game One was a run fest with the Orioles scoring in double-digits with eleven runs scored by the sixth inning and the Sox plated five by the bottom of the fifth. Tuesday will be a much different type of game with a lot less scoring. The Orioles will send Kyle Bradish to the bump with his 4-7 record and his ERA of 4.65 on the season. Bradish has a much better starter after the all-star break. In the eleven starts since the break, opponents are hitting just .210 against him with a 2.67 ERA over that span. Bradish has allowed three or fewer runs in each of those eleven starts since the break. In his most recent start, which was against Houston, he tossed 8.2 innings without allowing a run, only allowing two hits, and striking out ten. In his last start against Boston, he surrendered just one run on two hits over seven innings of work. The Red Sox will send Michael Wacha to the mound with his remarkable record of 11-1 and carries an ERA of just 2.70 this year. Wacha will take the mound at home, and he has been lights out for the most part here posting a record of 5-1 with an unreal ERA of just 1.72. Wacha has faced the Orioles twice this season going 2-0 with an ERA of 2.31. Our TPR Index projects a run total of 6.64 runs. The Teams MM Ratings have the Orioles offense producing a run total of -1.20 below their projected runs for this contest. The Red Sox offense producing a run total of -1.11 below their projected run for this contest. The SIM Matrix has the UNDER with a 73.98 percent advantage against the oddsmakers total. The Orioles are 2-10-1 Under on the road facing right-handed starters this season. The total range for this game has been too high for the Orioles bats and their opponents posting a record of 8-18-3 Under in the current total range. The same is true for the Red Sox as they are 1-4 Under their last five at home in this total range. With solid support on the bump and at the plate we will play this one to come up well short of the oddsmakers total on Tuesday night. UNDER

[ESPN] The Star will be in the Apple Monday night for a game against the host Giants under the Monday Night Lights. With Dallas QB Dak Prescott breaking his thumb it seemed like the pundits already had the Boys in the dumpster for the 2022 season. Surprise its Cooper Rush. He is in for the banged-up Prescott and Dallas has gone 2-0 both straight up and against the number with him under center the last two seasons. He started to struggle in the second half against the Bengals last Sunday after a strong start to the game in the first half. Dallas will have spent the week ironing out the issues he had during the second half against the striped ones. For the Giants their two wins have been by a field goal or less which surprisingly the league has already seen twelve games decided by three or fewer points this season. This is the first time since 2016 that the Giants have opened the season 2-0. They hosted division rival Washington in the third game of 2016 campaign they were installed as a 3.5-point home favorite, and they lost 29 to 27. Will history repeat itself Under the Lights on Monday Night? Bad news for the Giants the Cowboys have dominated this series winning nine of the last ten meetings while cashing eight of those ten against the spread. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 4.84 points in favor of the visitors. The MM projects a point differential of -6.47 points against the current line range in this contest. The OFF-DEF splits have a projected point differential of -6.15 in favor of the Boys. The SIM Matrix has the Dallas Cowboys with a 72.66 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number in tonight’s game. From Game 3 on, play ON an undefeated home team (not a favorite of 3+ points or underdog of 4+ points) not off an OT contest in its last game vs. a non-undefeated opponent not off a Monday division home favorite SU loss in its last game 4-10 ATS L14 including 0-5 ATS L5 and lost with the Buccaneers yesterday against the Packers. Play ON a Monday conference underdog of 6 points or less off a non-conference home game (not a SU loss of 7+ points) last week 12-1 ATS the lone loss came back in 2013 since that loss the system is undefeated. With solid support fundamentally and on the situational side we will take the point(s) with the Star as they continue to dominate the Giants. DALLAS

[FOX] The Baltimore Ravens travel north to face the host New England Patriots Sunday afternoon. The Ravens have public backing this week in fact it’s huge support with more than seventy percent of the money coming in on the Black Birds. They must believe the Ravens are “due” for a big performance after blowing a 35 to 14 fourth quarter lead to the Fins last week. A record collapse by the Black Birds has motivated the betting public against this Patriots team. The Ravens became the first NFL team in twelve years to blow a twenty-0ne-point fourth quarter lead. The Patriots defense held Miami and Pittsburgh to two touchdowns each. While their offense primarily their passing attack has shown improvement. In their victory over the Steelers, they held a 376 to 243 yardage advantage. That could be the key difference in this game with the Black Birds secondary limited with four of their top corners either out with injuries or playing hurt and not at one hundred percent. Belichick and his troops are 40-21-1 ATS when facing a team in this situation coming off a straight up favorite loss including a perfect 4-0 ATS at home as an underdog. Ravens head coach John Harbaugh is 3-10-3 against the spread as a favorite coming off a straight up favorite loss including 0-9-3 ATS if favored by three or more points. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 5.79 points in favor of the home team. The MM projects a point differential of -7.92 points against the current line range in this contest. The OFF-DEF splits have a projected point differential of +7.45. The SIM Matrix has New England with a 73.98 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number in today’s game. Play AGAINST NFL teams with a total of forty-five or less coming off a home SU loss as a favorite of less than thirteen points in a game against Miami last week. These teams are 9-27 ATS covering just twenty-five percent in this situation. With solid support for the home team, we will take the points as the Patriots shock the Black Birds on Sunday afternoon. PATRIOTS

[FOX] The Green Bay Packers are on the road in Cigar City for a late afternoon battle against the Cigar City Buccaneers. The Packers catch the Bucs at a good time of the season with Tampa Bay’s offense suffering from multiple player injuries. One of Brady’s favorite targets Mike Evans is out for this game (suspension). The trouble doesn’t end there as wide receivers Chris Godwin and Julio Jones both missed last week due to injuries and will not be at full speed today even if they play. The offensive line has a cluster of injured personnel with some out and others walking wounded. The main reason for the Bucs 2-0 record is their defense which will be tested today by a now healthy offensive line of the Packers. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 6.06 points in favor of the road team. The MM projects a point differential of -7.90 points against the current line range in this contest. The OFF-DEF splits have a projected point differential of +7.44. The SIM Matrix has Green Bay with a 73.92 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number in today’s game. The Packers for some reason get a boost after facing the Bears they are 14-2 against the spread in that situation. We are not big on revenge it is the most overused theory by handicappers. But we believe there are situations where its warranted and this might be one of those situations. The Packers are 4-1 ATS when playing with double revenge while the Packers are only 2-8 ATS at home playing into double revenge. With solid support for the road team, we are going to back the healthier and better coached team on Sunday afternoon in Cigar City. PACKERS

[CBS] The Kansas City Chiefs hit the highway for a trip to Indianapolis where they will take on the host Colts Sunday afternoon. Many times, you will see teams play to consistently play to the low or high side when facing certain teams even if it is out of character for them overall. We have one of those situations today. Recently this series has been an Under series with the last four meetings finishing on the low side of the total. In those games we had an average total of 48.5 points with the teams combing to average just 34.8 points over that four-game span producing a total margin of -13.7 points per game. The TPR Index projects a game point total average of 43.76 points. The MM projects a total point differential of -7.99 against the current total range. The SIM Matrix has the UNDER with a 73.91 percent advantage against the oddsmakers total. The projected OFF-DEF splits have the UNDER with a significant advantage. The combined average for both teams from the OFF-DEF splits has a projected game total average of -7.86 against the oddsmakers total. We want to play Under on NFL Game Three undefeated road favorites of more than three points because they are 11-28-3 Under including 3-16-1 Under if the total is less than fifty-four points. Play Under on NFL home teams coming off a division shutout loss with a total line of more than forty-three points, 1-10 Under. With solid situational support along with strong fundamental support for the low side we will play this one to come up well short of the oddsmakers total on Sunday afternoon in Indy. UNDER