Cajun Sports

We return to the Western Conference on Friday night for the only nationally televised NBA game on the board as the LA Clippers visit the Mile High City to face the host Nuggets. The Clippers will have taken advantage of their mini break with the last four days off after losing back-to-back games to the Timberwolves and Rockets. Even though the oddsmakers have them as rather large underdogs we expect a solid effort from the Clippers team, and they have already defeated the Nuggets twice this season. So, revenge for the Nuggets has come and gone, it will have to be something else that pushes the Nuggets past this number tonight. Back in late October the Clippers came to town and were installed as +7.5-point road underdogs in the Mile High City and they defeated this Nuggets team 109 to 104. The Nuggets took their show on the road the first day of December and faced off against the Clippers in the City of Angels. Denver was again installed as the favorite even though they were the road team and had lost at home to the Clippers earlier this season. In this game they eventually lost a tough one 126 to 122. LA has done a nice job in this series winners of four of the last five meetings and covering the spread in five of the last six overall. The Nuggets are inconsistent at 3-6-1 ATS in ten home games this season. Denver is also 0-6 ATS as a favorite anywhere in this price range. They are also 1-8 ATS the last nine when coming off a blowout win by at least twenty points. We have the Clippers coming off three straight home games where they are 16-3 ATS in their next outing and 17-5 ATS coming off a home game and now playing on the road. The TPR Index projects a point advantage of 1.2 points. The MM projects a point differential of -5.90 versus the current line range. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 5.26 with a transitional average of 42.7 and a projected conversion rate range 46.9 to 48.8. The SIM Matrix has the Los Angeles Clippers with a 73.9 percent advantage versus the spread in this contest. Play ON NBA road teams after playing at home when they committed at least ten fewer turnovers in their previous game than in the game before that, 82-57 ATS (59%)(+$1,930). We are going to take the points with the Clippers, they have proven to be a tough matchup for the Nuggets no matter where they play. Even if the Clippers cannot pull off their third win of the season against this Denver team, they should keep this one well within the number on Friday night in the Mile High City. PREDICTION: 8* LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS 116 DENVER NUGGETS 117

Week Fifteen of the NFL season kicks off with a huge NFC West battle with playoff implications. The visiting Rams are coming off a huge home win over the Buffalo Bills winning 44 to 42. The Rams needed a big game from Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua who had twelve receptions and 162 yards with one touchdown in the win. They needed that because their defense fell apart in the second half allowing 314 yards of total offense and giving up twenty-eight points to the Bills. Play AGAINST a road team (not a favorite of five or more points) off a home SU win of less than four points, leading by at least fourteen points after three quarters last week, 17-6 ATS (74%). The Niners are also coming off a big win rolling past an overmatched Bears team 38 to 13. The first half of that game tells the story as the Niners outgained the Bears 309 to 4 in the first two quarters of the game. San Francisco has a very tough schedule to finish the season, and they can ill afford any more losses. Even winning out they will probably need some help from someone along the way. These two met in LA earlier this season with the Rams defeating the Niners 27 to 24 as six-point home underdogs. San Francisco has been a solid play ON team when facing a team, they lost to earlier in the season they are14-6 SU and ATS in the last twenty games in this situation. Play ON NFL teams in the current price range revenging a loss, with the team having a losing record in the second half of the season, 41-15 ATS (73%) including 26-6 ATS (81%) if they lost by seven or fewer points in the first meeting. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 8.8 points. The MM projects a point differential of +5.96 points against the current line range. The SIM Matrix has the San Francisco 49ers with a 73.99 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number tonight. The OFF-DEF split projections have the Niners with a projected point advantage of 8.25 points. The Rams are 1-6 SU/ATS in this series when coming off an ATS win in their last outing. While the Niners come in with a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS record the last three seasons when playing under the Thursday night lights. Play AGAINST NFL teams coming off a win in which they scored and allowed at least forty points, 22-12 ATS including 1-7 ATS when facing a team off a SU win. Play ON NFL Thursday night home team in Week Nine or later because they are 43-25 SU and 40-25-3 ATS (62%). We are going to lay the short price with the Niners on Thursday night. GAME PREDICTION: 8* SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 29 LOS ANGELES RAMS 21

The Knockout Round of the NBA Cup continues on Wednesday with a matchup between the boys from the ATL and the host Knickerbockers. The Hawks had their six-game winning streak snapped at home their last time out facing the Nuggets they lost by thirty losing 141 to 111. Now they travel to Gotham to face the Knicks who just defeated the Raptors 113 to 108 north of the border. We want to play against the Knicks when they are coming off a road win versus a division rival because they are only 2-12 ATS their last fourteen. The Knicks have played well at home recently, winning six of their last seven games. Although they have been inconsistent against the number posting a record of 11-12-1 ATS this season. When they have been favored in this price range, they have won just three against the spread in their last seven in this situation. Atlanta is just 10-15 ATS on the season but are 5-2 ATS as a road underdog and 4-3 ATS their last seven overall. The Hawks will have an extra day of rest compared to the Knicks and surprisingly they rank better than the Knicks in defensive efficiency this season. The Hawks Trae Young playing at MSG in an elimination game should provide us with a huge effort from not only him but his teammates as well. He has done a very nice job of involving his teammates in the game over the past two weeks he has posted a pair of twenty plus assist games. Even when he is not having a big night scoring, he knows exactly what to do as far as getting the rest of the team involved. These two met in the ATL earlier this season with the Knicks laying seven points on the road and eventually losing a tough one 121 to 116 to the Hawks. We understand the possibility of the revenge factor playing a role here but even considering that our numbers tell us the Hawks might now win SU, but they should stay well within the number. The TPR Index projects a point advantage of 3.94 points. The MM projects a point differential of -4.18 versus the current line range. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 4.33 with a transitional average of 42.7 and a projected conversion rate range 47.1 to 49.0. The SIM Matrix has the Atlanta Hawks with a 73.8 percent advantage versus the spread in this contest. Play AGAINST NBA teams averaging an ATS margin of less than or equal to 3.52 on the season and their opponent is coming off a SU loss with the last matchup coming on the road, 70-42 ATS (63%)(+$2,380). We are going to take the generous points at MSG on Wednesday night as the boys from the ATL take the boys from Gotham down to the 00:00. PREDICTION: 8* ATLANTA HAWKS 116 NEW YORK KNICKS 120

Week Fourteen of the NFL season has reached the finish line. With the Cincinnati Bengals travelling south to face the Dallas Cowboys in the Monday Night Game of the Week. The Stripped Ones come in with a record of 4-8 SU and 6-6 against the number after losing at home to Pittsburgh last week, 44 to 38 as three-point favorites. The Stars come into this contest with a season record of 5-7 SU and 4-7-1 against the number. This after picking up a win over the miserable G-Men on Thanksgiving Day winning 27 to 20 as four-point favorites. Cincy has averaged thirty-points per game over their last three games. Over the course of the season, they have averaged 27.9 points per game which has them ranked as the fifth best scoring offense in the NFL. Defensively the Bengals are 27th in the league, allowing 369.2 total yards each game, and the 28.3 points per game that they give up is the second worst mark in the league. The Cowboys have come off a terrible five-game losing streak with back-to-back wins, moving them to 12th place in the NFC. The team averaged 30.5 points in their last two games, both coming against conference foes. This season, the Dallas offense is averaging 20.7 points, 21st in the NFL, and 322.7 total yards, 20th in the league, per game. This season, the Dallas defense allowed 359.7 total yards, 26th in the NFL, and 28.3 points, 31sth in the league, per game. Our TPR Index projects a game total of 54.8 points. The MM projects a total point differential of +6.17 points against the current total range in this contest. The SIM Matrix has the OVER with a 73.99 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number in tonight’s game. We want to play Over in Cincinnati games when they are facing teams that allow at least twenty-four points per game, 5-0 OVER. We want to play Over in Dallas home games when they are coming off a game versus a division opponent, 6-0 OVER. Play OVER in NFL games when the total is at least 49.5 with a team that has won between twenty-five and forty percent facing a team that has a losing record during the second half of the season, 26-4 OVER (87%). With significant support from both teams on both sides of the ball as well as strong situational support we will play this game to sail Over the posted total on Monday night in Dallas. GAME PREDICTION: 8* OVER CINCINNATI BENGALS 34 DALLAS COWBOYS 28