Cajun Sports

The Rice Owls are on the road in Birmingham Alabama taking on the Blazers of UAB Saturday afternoon. Both clubs enter this contest off games that were not only blowouts but shutouts for one of the teams involved. Unfortunately for the Owls they are on the wrong side of a 45 to 0 embarrassment at the hands of UTSA while the Blazers completely dominated Southern Mississippi 34 to 0. The Blazers have also dominated this series winning four straight meetings with the first three coming by more than two touchdowns. Last season it was a bit closer with UAB winning 21 to 16 as a touchdown favorite. We expect the series to return to its previous form prior to last season’s contest. UAB is coming off that win against USM leading 31 to 0 at half-time while racking up 275 yards offense and holding the Eagles to just sixty-two yards of total offense in the first half. Just two weeks ago the Owls faced that same Eagles team, and the Owls were outgained barely winning the game with a 24 to 19 final. Last week UTSA outgained the Owls 403 to 102, ouch. The Rice Owls after having played half their 21-campaign schedule are only 2-4 SU and could very easily qualify as a towel tossing team. In their four losses Rice has lost by a combined score of 185 to 24. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 30.92 points. The MM projects a point differential of +8.27 points against the current line range. The SIM Matrix has the UAB Blazers with a 74.18 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number today. The OFF-DEF Matrix has the Blazers winning the stat battle with a 293-yard advantage which should translate into a 29-point win for UAB. The Blazers have a current Momentum Matrix average for this contest of 8.88 out of a possible 12.0 while their opponent who is coming in off a blowout loss has an average of only 3.49 out of a possible 12.0. That difference gives the Blazers a projected point advantage of 31.52 points. The host in this series has gone 8-1 against the number with the Blazers a perfect 5-0 against the spread when playing in the “Pittsburgh of the South”. Play AGAINST CFB road teams coming off a road loss against a conference rival versus an opponent coming off a double-digit road victory, 41-12 ATS (77.4%) including 32-9 ATS (78%) if the road team is installed as an underdog. To summarize we will back the Blazers as they roll to an easy home victory over the towel tossing Owls of Rice. Lay the chalk

The Gamecocks of South Carolina make the trip west to face the A&M Aggies on Saturday night. South Carolina comes into this contest with a misleading 4-3 SU record. The Aggies also have a misleading record at 5-2 SU but they are misleading for different reasons. The Aggies have owned this series with seven straight victories and covering the last three straight. In last seasons matchup A&M outgained the Gamecocks 530 to 150 total yards. The score was reflective of that with a final score of 48 to 3. South Carolina has had trouble on the conference road this season losing their two previous games this year by twenty-seven and twenty-five points at Georgia and Rocky Top. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 26.99 points. The MM projects a point differential of +7.91 points against the current line range. The SIM Matrix has the Texas A&M Aggies with a 73.87 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number today. With the advantage on both sides of the ball and still fighting for a conference title we will lay the chalk with the A&M Aggies on Saturday night.

The Maryland Terrapins are on the road again having been trounced by the Buckeyes 66 to 17 two weeks ago. They are coming off a bye week but even with a rest advantage it will not be enough to defeat this Golden Gophers football team. Minnesota is coming off a win over Nebraska last week and only have a game against Northwestern on deck. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 12.07 points. The MM projects a point differential of +7.86 points against the current line range. The SIM Matrix has the Minnesota Golden Gophers with a 73.90 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number today. We want to play ON any CFB team after a game in which they did not force a turnover and now face a team after four straight games where they forced one or fewer turnovers. We want to play on these team because they have a record of 70-41 ATS (63%) the last five seasons. Lay the short price with the home team as they grab an important victory on Saturday afternoon.

The Boston Red Sox are in Houston for Friday’s Game Six of the American League Championship Series against the host Astros. The Sox are facing a 3 to 2 deficit in the best of seven series after dropping back-to-back games at Fenway Park. Over those two games the Astros racked up eighteen runs on twenty-three hits while the Red Sox only managed three and eight respectively. The Sox will send Nathan Eovaldi to the bump with his 13-9 SU record and an ERA of 3.68 on the season. In his last three starts he has posted a record of 2-0 SU with an ERA of 3.45 with the team winning all three of his last three trips to the mound. Houston will hang their hopes on Luis Garcia and his 11-8 SU record along with his 3.82 ERA on the year. His last three starts have been difficult to say the least posting a record of 0-2 SU and an ERA of 13.49 over that span with the Astros losing all three of those starts. Our TPR Index projects a run total of 11.68 runs. The Teams MM Ratings have the Boston Red Sox with a projected run total of +1.23 above their season average. The Houston Astros have a projected run total of +1.14 above their season to date average. The SIM Matrix has the Over with a 73.94 percent advantage against the oddsmakers total in tonight’s contest. The Sox are 20-7-4 Over in League Championship games and 20-8 Over in their last twenty-eight playoff games. Houston is 21-7-2 Over their last thirty games following a victory. The Astros are also 51-23-3 Over when their opponent allowed at least five runs in their last game. With significant support for the high side, we will play this one to sail over the posted total on Friday night.

The Tulane Green Wave are on the road taking on the Mustangs of SMU Thursday night. Willie Fritz and his troops appeared to be much better than expected as they opened the season falling to the Sooners by just five points in the 40 to 35 loss. But preseason projections were correct even though they did put up 69 points their next trip to the gridiron but that came against Morgan State. They proceeded to lose their next four games never scoring more than twenty-nine points in any of those losses. SMU is undefeated and have done a nice job to this point. But Sonny Dykes and his team have not been a point scoring machine this season they rack up some yards, but scoring is not reflective of the yardage. The Mustangs scored 56 against Abilene Christian but after that they have scored 35, 39, 42, 41 and 31. At home this season SMU has allowed an average of 12.7 points per game against teams that average 22.8 points per game. Offensively the Horses average 44 points per game at home this versus teams that allow an average of 37 points per game. That is not a huge difference in scoring differential when the Horses are on their home turf. SMU has only had one game where the game total exceeded seventy points this season and that game was against North Texas which had a 76-point total. The final in that matchup was 35 to 12. Our TPR Index projects a game total of 64.3 points. The MM projects a total point differential of -6.78 against the current total range. The SIM Matrix has the UNDER with a 72.16 percent advantage against the oddsmakers total. The Reverse Total Matrix has the Green Wave and Mustangs with a combined total point differential of -11.05 points against the current total of 71.0. Play Under on CFB teams with a completion percentage of fifty-eight percent or better, after allowing eight more passing yards per attempt in three straight games, 47-101 Under including 2-13 Under this season. Play Under on CFB teams with a completion percentage of sixty-two percent or better, after allowing eight more passing yards per attempt in three straight games, 17-54 Under including a perfect 0-9 Under this season. With significant support from both sides of the ball for the low side we will play this total to come up well short of the oddsmakers total on Thursday night.

This matchup fits the perception versus reality dilemma that is quite common in college football. We have an undefeated ranked team coming off extra rest facing a team that just got blown out on national television as a -4.5-point road favorite. We of course dug a little deeper than your basic box scores and we see Coastal has a resume made up of poor performing teams. The Sagarin strength of schedule has Coastal at 159 but one must remember there are only 130 FBS teams so twenty-nine FCS teams have played a tougher schedule. Our SOS has Coastal with a 129 SOS rating while Appalachian State has a sixty-two SOS rating. On the field tonight Coastal will face the toughest pass defense they have seen this season. Even against a much weaker schedule some of the key numbers reveal a weakness in this Coastal club. On the road Coastal has averaged 40 points per game against teams that allow right at 42 points per game. Defensively Coastal allows 22.5 points per game away from home this season against teams that average 21 points per game. Appalachian State averages scoring 36 points per game versus teams that only allow 30.2 points per game. Defensively the Mountaineers allow an average of just 19.7 points per game versus teams that average scoring 27.1 points per game. Those differences on offense and defense between Appalachian State and Coastal Carolina become even more important when you consider the SOS difference. The Mountaineers are 16-5 ATS versus teams that average 250 or more passing yards per game. They are 13-3 ATS if their opponent averages 275 or more passing yards per game. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 1.96 points in favor of the underdog. The MM projects a point differential of -6.58 against the current line range. The SIM Matrix has the Appalachian State Mountaineers with a 72.22 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number. Mountaineers head coach Shawn Clark will have his troops ready after their total embarrassment on television last week. With significant support on both sides of the ball for the home team we will take the points with the boys from the Mountains on Wednesday night.

The 2021-22 NBA Season opened tonight in Milwaukee with the Bucks playing host to the Brooklyn Nets. Our focus on opening night is the total in this contest our numbers support a play on the low side of the oddsmakers number tonight. We have a pair teams at the opposite end of the preseason spectrum with the Warriors who were 5-0 SU while the Lakers never made it into the winners column going 0-6 SU. The Lakers have not looked like a team with the type of chemistry needed to start the season and this should keep the scoring down compared to the total. We know Golden State is 48-73-3 Under facing a conference foe on the road in the current price range including 26-45-3 Under as a road underdog in this situation. The last two seasons have seen the Warriors go Under at a rate of 12-25 Under when playing away from home. They are also 7-18 Under as a road underdog of six or fewer points. The Lakers are 21-33 Under as a favorite the last two seasons including 5-17 Under as a home favorite of six or fewer points. Our TPR Index projects a game total average of 219.2 points. The MM projects a total point differential of -6.77 points with a current total range of 225.0 to 227.5. The SIM Matrix has the UNDER with a 71.94 percent advantage against the total in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has offensive and defensive splits for both teams on the low side of their current projections. With significant support from the fundamentals as well as strong situational support for the low side we will play this total to come up short on Tuesday night in LA.

The Houston Astros are in Boston for Game Four of their best of seven in the ALCS. After wins in Games Two and Three the Red Sox hold serve against the Astros going into tonight’s game. The Astros will hang their hopes on Zack Greinke who has a record of 11-6 SU with an ERA of 4.11 on the season. Over his last three starts he has posted a record of 0-2 SU with an ERA of 12.46. Those two losses came on the road, and we know Greinke is a much different pitcher on the road than he is at home. The Red Sox will send Nick Pivetta who has a record of 9-8 SU and an ERA of 4.50 this year. His last three starts have seen Pivetta post a record of 0-1 SU with an ERA of 4.61. Our TPR Index projects a run advantage of 1.46 runs. The SPMatrix has Zack Greinke with an average of 6.03 compared to Nick Pivetta who has an average of 7.94. Our next set of metrics look at the overall Pitchers Power Ratings. Coming into this game and situation Greinke has a rating of 98 while Pivetta has a rating of 105 with a league average of 100. The SIM Matrix projects a 73.84 percent advantage for the Red Sox in tonight’s contest. Play ON MLB home teams averaging 0.35 or fewer stolen bases per game on the season facing a starting pitcher who was hit for five or more runs in his last two starts, 52-18 SU (74.3%). With significant support for Pivetta and the Sox we will lay the chalk as the Red Sox get the win and put another nail in the Astros coffin.