Cajun Sports

The Phoenix Suns are in the Twin Cities for Game Two of their best-of-seven Western Conference Playoff series against the host Timberwolves. Minnesota took care of business in Game One rolling to an easy victory 120 to 95. We look for the Suns to bounce back after dominating the Timberwolves during the regular season. The lack of a reliable point guard was the Achillies Heel of the Suns in Game One and the Timberwolves took advantage of that by picking them up full court. That caused Devin Booker some stress and he was never able to get into any type of rhythm on the offensive end of the court. If Grayson Allen is not able to go for the Suns Booker and Beal will need to step and we believe they will. The TPR Index projects a point advantage of 2.44 points in favor of the Suns. The MM projects a point differential of -5.38 in the current line range. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 5.06 with a transitional average of 42.97 and a projected conversion rate range of 47.5 to 49.6 percent. The SIM Matrix has the Phoenix Suns with a 73.98 percent advantage against the spread in this contest. The Suns as an underdog versus a team with a win percentage of .667 or better and coming off a SU/ATS loss versus a team with a win percentage of .667 or better they are 20-9 ATS including a perfect 7-0 ATS in this price range. Minnesota when facing Phoenix in the current price range and coming off two games as a favorite are 0-6 ATS. Play ON NBA teams in this price range coming off a SU/ATS loss while going Over versus a team with a win percentage of .667 or better, 89-52-4 ATS including 51-27-2 ATS if they are an underdog. Take the points with the Suns in Twin Cities on Tuesday night as they take Game Two and even the series against the Timberwolves.

The New Orleans Pelicans make the trip to Oklahoma City for their opening game of their seven-game series against the host Thunder. New Orleans earned the eight-seed as they downed Sacramento 105 to 98 Friday night at home, covering the line as a 1.5-point favorite. Oklahoma City clinched the top seed in the West by crushing Dallas 135 to 86 at home last Sunday in their regular season finale, covering as a -19.5-point favorite. The Pelicans are 13th in the league in scoring offense averaging 115.1 points per game on the season. The Pelicans are 8th in the league in scoring defense allowing an average of 110.7 points per game. The Thunder are 3rd in the league in scoring offense averaging 120.1 points per game on the year. The Thunder are 11th in the league in scoring defense allowing an average of 112.7 points per game this season. The Pelicans will be without Zion Williamson for at least the first four games of this series and maybe more. They did bounce back after losing Williamson and defeat the Kings to advance to this series. This is a different animal and without Williamson the job gets much tougher. The Thunder likes to play fast and score on the break. When teams have had success against them, they have done so by dominating on the glass. That is not likely to happen tonight without Williamson. The TPR Index projects a point advantage of 13.34 points. The MM projects a point differential of +5.76 in the current line range. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 5.04 with a transitional average of 43.82 and a projected conversion rate range of 48.3 to 50.6 percent. The SIM Matrix has the Oklahoma State Thunder with a 73.98 percent advantage against the spread in this contest. Play AGAINST NBA road underdogs in this price range facing a team with a win percentage of .667 and coming off a SU win as a home favorite while going Under in their last game, 42-67-2 ATS. Play ON NBA favorites coming off an ATS win as a favorite in their last game in which their opponent shot less than thirty-five percent from the field, 71-39-2 ATS (65%). We are going to lay the chalk with the host Thunder as they get an important Game One victory over an overmatched Pelicans team Sunday night.

The seventh seeded Sixers are on the road in Gotham taking on the Knicks Saturday night in Game One of their NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs. The Sixers slipped past the Heat 105 to 104 in the NBA Play-In Tournament to advance to this series. Both teams have a few key players listed as questionable or ruled out for this Game One contest. The Sixers averaged 114.6 points per game this season, which ranked fifteenth overall in the league. Defensively they only allowed 111.5 points per game which had them ranked ninth in the NBA. New York averaged 112.8 points per game this season which ranked nineteenth in the league while defensively they allowed an average of just 108.2 points per game which was good enough for second in the NBA. The TPR Index projects a point advantage of 2.84 points in favor of the Sixers. The MM projects a point differential of -5.92 in the current line range. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 4.80 with a transitional average of 42.89 and a projected conversion rate range of 46.7 to 48.5 percent. The SIM Matrix has the Philadelphia 76ers with a 73.96 percent advantage against the spread in this contest. New York as a division home favorite coming off back-to-back ATS losses while going Over are 0-8-1 ATS including 0-6 ATS if they are facing the Sixers in this situation. Philadelphia as a division underdog in this price range and coming off an ATS loss while going Over are a perfect 9-0 ATS. Play AGAINST NBA home favorites coming off a pair of SU wins, ATS losses as a home favorite, 33-57 ATS. Play AGAINST NBA home favorites coming off a pair of SU wins, ATS losses while going Over at home as favorites, 8-26 ATS. We are going to take the points with the Sixers as they keep this one close and possibly shock the Knicks and get the SU win on Saturday night in Gotham.

The Sacramento Kings are in the Big Easy Friday night taking on the host Pelicans to decide who will advance to face the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round of the playoffs. Our focus is on the total in this one. We have seen a dramatic drop in the total with it falling as much as 8.5 points at some of the books. The announcement that Zion Williamson, who left Tuesday’s game late in the fourth quarter with a hamstring injury will not suit up has moved the line and total. These teams are very familiar with one another having met five times this season with New Orleans winning and covering in all five. That includes a 133 to 100 blowout at the Golden 1 Center back in early January when Zion Williamson was out of the lineup for that contest. Also, in those five meetings none of the games came in under 211 points they averaged 237.2 points per game over that five-game span. Our TPR Index projects a game total average of 217.9 points. The MM projects a total point differential of +7.26 points against the current total range. The SIM Matrix has the OVER with a 74.14 percent advantage versus the total in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has offensive and defensive splits for both teams on the high side of their current season averages. Play OVER on NBA conference teams in this price range coming off a pair of SU losses as a home favorite, 33-17-3 Over. Play OVER on NBA home underdogs in the current price range coming off a SU/ATS loss as a favorite, 75-47-1 Over. We are going to play this one to sail Over the posted total in the Big Easy on Friday night.