Cajun Sports

[TNT] The Dallas Mavericks take their one win on the road to San Francisco after defeating the Warriors in Game Four 119 to 109 in Big D. The Mavs needed to change something down 0-3 and facing elimination. They needed an answer for the Warriors mixing up their defense with man-to-man and zone which kept the Mavs offense in check for the most part. On Tuesday night in Dallas the Mavs gave the Warriors a different look moving Luka Doncic to the wing instead of the lead which allowed him to attack with not as much resistance as he had seen in the previous three games. Doncic still scored thirty points, but his biggest contribution came in the assist department where he got his teammates open three’s finishing with nine assists. Of course, the Warriors will make adjustments in the event the Mavs try the same thing against them tonight. The Warriors are 8-0 SU at home this postseason, with an average winning margin of 118 to 103. They have never lost Games 4-5 consecutively after taking a 3- to 0 lead. Prior to the changes the Mavs made in Game Four their most recent trip to the bay area saw them with a real chance of defeating the Warriors on their home floor. In Game Two Dallas shot 52.3 percent from the field and converted fifteen of twenty-seven attempts from behind the arc. With that they carried a 72 to 58 first half lead over the Warriors. The second half they failed to shoot the ball as well and did not have an answer for the Warriors offense getting outscored 68 to 45 and losing Game Two. The TPR Index projects a game total of 223.6 points. The MM projects a total point differential of +8.28 against the current total range. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 7.97 with a transitional average of 43.8. The SIM Matrix has the OVER with a 74.59 percent advantage against the oddsmakers total in this contest. Dallas facing a conference foe in the current line range and coming off a SU/ATS win are 77-54-2 Over including 33-15-1 Over as a conference road underdog in this situation. The Warriors coming off two games where they were installed as underdogs and now play Dallas in the current price range are a perfect 5-0 Over. Golden State coming off an Over as a road underdog and now facing Dallas they are 16-6-1 Over including 10-0-1 Over if they are also coming off a SU/ATS loss. We should get an all-out effort from both teams tonight and their history tells us this will be a higher scoring affair than predicted. With significant support for the high side of the oddsmakers number we will play this one to sail Over the posted total by the bay on Thursday night.

The Phillies are in the ATL for a four-game midweek set with Game Four set for Thursday night. The Braves bats have done the damage after losing the opener 7 to 3 they have since won 6 to 5 and 8 to 4 the last two days. The Braves Dansby Swanson went 4 for 5 with two doubles last night to extend his hitting streak to eight games. The Phillies have a hot hitter of their own with Bryce Harper who also went four for five with two doubles in their loss on Wednesday night. Despite playing with a sore elbow Harper is batting .318 with ten home runs and thirty-one RBI’s. We look for tonight’s starters to slow some of that hitting down and force this one to go Under the posted total. The Phillies will send Aaron Nola to the bump with his 1-4 SU record and his ERA of 3.96 on the season. Nola has not won since his first start of the season although he has pitched better than his record would indicate. Over his last four outings consistency has been the issue he has two games where he allowed four or more runs and two games where he allowed two or fewer runs. His last outing, he gave up four runs in five and third innings of work against the Dodgers while striking out nine. We look for him to bounce back with a solid outing tonight. Nola has taken the bump twenty-five times against the Braves going 12-8 SU with an ERA of 3.32 while striking out 142 hitters over that span. Wright has rebounded with two solid outings since his poor outing against the Red Sox where he allowed six runs. In his most recent start against the Marlins, he tossed five scoreless innings giving up two hits with three strikeouts. Wright has faced the Phillies three times with a record of 0-2 SU and an ERA of 5.56. Our TPR Index projects a run total of 5.82 runs. The Teams MM Ratings have the Phillies with a projected run total of -1.07 below their projected total. The Braves have a projected run total of -1.18 below their projected total. The SIM Matrix has the Under with a 73.94 percent advantage against the oddsmakers total in tonight’s contest. With significant support from the bump and projected advantages at the plate we will play this one to come up well short of the oddsmakers number on Thursday night. UNDER

The Phillies are in the ATL for a four-game midweek set with Game Three Wednesday night. The series is tied at a game apiece and the Braves pulled a walk off 6 to 5 victory Tuesday night. The Braves will send right-hander Charlie Morton to the bump with his 3-3 SU record and an ERA of 4.95 on the season. Over his last three starts he has gone 2-0 SU with a 2.20 ERA. In his last start in South Beach versus the Marlins on Friday he gave up three runs on seven hits and five strikeouts in five and third innings. Morton is 5-5 SU with a 4.53 ERA in twelve career starts against the Phillies. The Phillies will hang their hopes on left-hander Ranger Suarez who is 4-2 SU on the year with an ERA of 4.12. Suarez is perfect away from home posting a record of 3-0 SU with an ERA of 2.50 on the season. Our TPR Index projects a run advantage of 1.32 runs in favor of the Phillies. Our next set of metrics look at the overall Pitchers Power Ratings. Coming into this game and situation Suarez has a rating of 112 while Morton has a rating of 97 with a league average of 100. The higher the number the better the starter in this situation. The SIM Matrix projects a 73.64 percent advantage for the Phillies in tonight’s contest. With significant support for the Phillies, we will play them tonight in the ATL as they take a 2-1 series lead.

[TNT] The Golden State Warriors are one game away from making another Finals appearance. They face the Mavericks Tuesday night in Big D for Game Four holding a three to zero lead in the series. Over the last five Game Four’s where a team was facing elimination, they have for the most part mailed it in posting a record of just 1-4 SU and 1-3-1 ATS allowing an average of 120.3 points per game. More bad news for the Mavs they are 22-40-1 ATS coming off a spread loss and now facing the Warriors. They are just 4-14 off a spread loss and installed as a home favorite versus the Warriors. If the Mavs also lost the game straight up and facing Golden State at home, they are 7-20 ATS including 0-7 ATS in the current line range. The TPR Index projects a point advantage of 6.67 points in favor of the Warriors. The MM projects a point differential of -7.88 against the current line range. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 7.84 with a transitional average of 42.71. The SIM Matrix has the Golden State Warriors with a 73.92 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number in this contest. Coming back from a 0-3 deficit is a huge mountain to climb especially against a team that has hit its stride and are playing their best basketball right now. The Warriors facing Dallas in the current price range are a perfect 9-0 ATS including 6-0 ATS when playing in Big D. Play Against NBA conference favorites in the current price range coming off an ATS loss as a favorite and going Under in their last game, 83-117-1 ATS. With significant support for the Warriors, we will back them here as they put an end to the Mavericks fairy tale.

[TBS] The Brewers are in San Diego taking on the Friars Tuesday night. Tonight, we get a pair of Cy Young winners on the mound with Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes and the Padres Blake Snell. Snell opened the season on the injured reserve list with a strained abductor this is the same problem he had back in the 21 campaign. In his last outing last Wednesday against the Phillies, he gave up three runs on three hits and three free passes while striking out five in three and two-thirds innings of work in a loss. Burnes will be making his ninth start, posting six quality starts in his first eight trips to the mound holding opponents to a .190 batting average and his WHIP of 0.83 over that span. Our TPR Index projects a run advantage of 1.44 runs. Our next set of metrics look at the overall Pitchers Power Ratings. Coming into this game and situation Burnes has a rating of 126 while Snell has a rating of 98 with a league average of 108. The higher the number the better the starter in this situation. The SIM Matrix projects a 73.65 percent advantage for the Brewers in tonight’s contest. Play ON MLB road favorites before the All-Star break when they are off a game in which they scored five or fewer runs and lost by one run, 120-80 SU (60.2%) (+$1252). Play ON Away Favorites versus a team that has won at least their last two games but scored less than 10 runs last game, 495-330 SU (60%) (+$4391). Play ON MLB road favorites when their bullpen has allowed at least one run in two straight games, 1608-1103 SU (59.3%) (+$9402). Play AGAINST MLB underdogs when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start. Playing against these underdogs has produced a record of 1071-659 SU (62%) (+$6440). With significant support on the bump and at the plate we will lay the chalk with the Brewers on Tuesday night.

[ABC] The boys from South Beach are on the road in Boston for Game Four they surprised the Celtics taking Game Three as +5.5-point road underdogs winning 109 to 103. Both teams have star players questionable for tonight’s game with Boston’s Jayson Tatum coming off a tough night in Game Three committing six turnovers and making just three of fourteen shots. He has an injury to his right shoulder and neck he is listed as probable for tonight’s game. Miami star forward Jimmy Butler sat out the second half of Saturday's game due to right knee inflammation. Butler will warm up with the intent to play in Game 4, the team said Monday. Butler had just eight points in twenty minutes of play during Game Three. Butler had averaged thirty-five points per game over the first two games in the series. The TPR Index projects a game total of 199.2 points. The MM projects a total point differential of -7.94 against the current total range. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 7.44 with a transitional average of 42.1. The SIM Matrix has the UNDER with a 73.92 percent advantage against the oddsmakers total in this contest. This series has seen the Over cash in all three games, but we expect that to change tonight with too many indicators pointing to a lower scoring affair. Unders have posted a record of 30-51 Under this postseason. Unders that have been played down by at least a half point have posted a record of 14-30 Under this postseason. With solid support for the low side of the oddsmakers number tonight we will play this total to come up short. UNDER

[ESPN] The boys from the Second City’s southside are in Gotham playing a weekend set against the host Yankees. Sunday they will play a double-header and our focus is on the second game of that double-header which can be seen on ESPN. A double-header with single admission and as a bonus you might get a boxing match if the tension and swapping of words between Tim Anderson and Josh Donaldson continues it might escalate into a round or two of boxing. The Yankees won on Saturday 7 to 5 giving the Yankees their tenth win in their last twelve games against the White Sox. Chicago is 4-6 their last ten games overall. The Sox will send Michael Kopech to the bump with his 0-1 SU record and his ERA of 1.54 on the season. He faced this Yankees team a week ago tossing six innings allowing three runs and walked four in the loss. Kopech has three career appearances against the Yankees with one start in Gotham going 0-1 SU with an ERA of 4.32 over that span. The Yankees will counter with right-hander Luis Severino who is 3-0 SU with an ERA of 3.63 so far this year with his team a perfect 7-0 SU behind him this season. In his last start versus Baltimore, he went six innings allowing one run on one hit in the Yankees 6 to 2 victory over the Orioles. Severino has five career starts versus the White Sox posting a record of 2-2 SU with an ERA of 4.11 over that span. Our TPR Index projects a run total of 6.74 runs. The Teams MM Ratings have the Chicago White Sox with a projected run total of -1.31 below their projected total. The New York Yankees have a projected run total of -1.19 below their projected total. The SIM Matrix has the UNDER with a 73.98 percent advantage against the oddsmakers total in tonight’s contest. With significant support on the bump from both teams we will play this one to come up well short of the oddsmakers total on Sunday night in Gotham. UNDER