Cajun Sports

The San Francisco 49ers are on the road in cheese-head country for the NFL’s featured Game of the Week. Both teams come into this matchup banged up on both sides of the ball the Niners have a back-up QB and the Packers are counting on a gimpy Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers injury is influencing their performance I know he had that one remarkable half to pull out the win versus the Bears but that was a one-off performance in the season-opener. The weeks are clicking off and the playoffs might be out of reach if Green Bay continues to squander opportunities like they did a week ago with four missed kicks and Rodgers has some culpability in those drives too as he and the Packers offense continued to stall at the worst times. The running game will be key for both teams in this contest both are Top Ten teams in yards per rush on the season. On the defensive side of the ball both teams are in the Top Ten is yards per pass attempt allowed. The TPR Index projects a point advantage of 2.92-points. The MM projects a point differential of -6.87-points against the current line range. The SIM Matrix has the San Francisco 49ers with a 70.04 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number in tonight’s contest. The Packers and Rodgers have a few tech elements in their favor which is normally the case in the NFL where the case can be made for either team based on historical technical angles. One of the key angles for their opponent finds the Niners are an almost unbelievable 44-18 SU and 44-17-1 ATS in Monday Night Games since 1980 including 11-2 SU and 11-1 ATS the last twelve. It would be easy to say these records were produced during the golden years for the Niners but that is not the case that record spans decades which saw many different maturations of this Niners club. Plus, the last dozen appearances have continued with a better overall winning percentage. The Niners are coming off a somewhat surprising loss to the Cardinals a game in which they dominated everything but the scoreboard, racking up a 496 to 220 yardage advantage in the loss. Play ON NFL teams that are coming off a double-digit loss where they rushed the ball at least 30 times, 138-107 ATS. Play ON an underdog of less than 10 points/pick off 31+ first downs in its last game vs. an opponent not off an underdog SU loss in its last game, 28-12 ATS. In Games 2-13, play ON an NFC non-division team before home against St. Louis in its next game, 26-4 ATS. We are going to take the near double-digits with the road team on Monday night in Wisconsin.

The NFL scheduling office finally got one right we have the old gunslinger hosting the new hotshot gunslinger on Sunday Night Football as the Kansas City Chiefs travel to Foxboro to take on Brady and the New England Patriots. Tom Brady lives for these moments to take a new kid to school as Patrick Mahomes and his Chiefs try to solve the Brady-Belichick riddle. A year ago, the Chiefs came to Foxboro to take on the Patriots in Game One of the season they were led by quarterback Alex Smith and crushed Brady and Company 42 to 27. The Chiefs eventually ran out of steam and failed to win a playoff game while Brady and Belichick went on to win the AFC. KC QB Patrick Mahomes had the hot hand early and he does have fourteen touchdown passes on the season, but he has thrown only four in the past three games with no touchdowns in the Jags game unfortunately he did throw two INT’s in that contest. The knee-jerk reaction last season in their Week One loss to the Chiefs was to bury them as has-beens this season it happened in Week Three when the Patriots lost in Detroit to the Lions. Since then the Patriots have destroyed the Dolphins 38 to 7 and rolled past the Colts 38 to 24. What changed well Brady got some help with a healthy group of receivers. Kansas City comes into Foxboro riding a 5-0 record to open the season another difference the Kansas City defense will not be facing Case Keenum and Blake Bortles on Sunday they will face a first-ballot hall of famer and possibly the GOAT in Brady. On the defensive side for the Patriots its always the same story they have holes and questions at certain positions only to make another Super Bowl run. Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes will face schemes he has never seen before as Belichick will do his part to confuse the kid and make him question what he sees. This normally causes hesitation on the part of the opposing quarterback and that allows the Patriots defense to collapse the pocket, defeat the play at the line of scrimmage or even in the secondary. The Patriots defense has benefitted from the return of a now-healthy DE Flowers who missed the first couple games due to injury Flowers is the team’s top pass rusher. New England excels at home during the regular season they are 11-3 ATS their last fourteen in Foxboro. KC coming off a SU win in their last game and now play away from home against a team with a win percentage of .667 or better are only 8-25-1 ATS including 8-23-1 ATS as road underdogs. If the Chiefs are coming off a SU and ATS win in their last game and are playing away from home as an underdog and against a team with a win percentage of .667 or better are only 5-19-1 ATS. New England facing a conference foe coming off a SU and ATS win are 114-77-4 ATS no matter where the game is played. If they are at home in this situation their record is 62-39-4 ATS and 58-36-1 ATS as a home favorite. We want to play AGAINST NFL teams having won five straight games and now play on the road with the current line range because they are only 18-37 ATS including 9-21 ATS as an underdog and 7-19 ATS as a road underdog in the current price range. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 11.08 points. The MM projects a point differential of 7.99 against the current line range. The SIM Matrix has the New England Patriots with a 73.2 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number on Sunday night. We are going to lay the short price with the host New England Patriots in the NFL Sunday Night Game of the Week.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are in Cincinnati for an AFC North battle against the Bengals on Sunday afternoon. The Steelers are coming off a blowout victory over the Falcons winning 41 to 17. The Bengals are coming off a home victory over the Miami Dolphins a game in which the Bengals fell behind 17 to 0 in the third quarter needing a pair of defensive touchdowns to help push them past the Dolphins prior to the final gun 27 to 17. The Dolphins gave the Bengals a hard time for almost three quarters the final score is misleading the game was much closer than the final score would indicate. They will face a Steelers team led by future hall of famer Big Ben on offense and their fearless cornerback Joe Haden on defense. Haden held Falcons superstar receiver Julio Jones to just five catches and sixty-two yards and no touchdowns. You can bet Haden will take Bengals number one weapon wide receiver AJ Green and try and shut him down limiting his ability to make big plays. The Steelers have won seven of the last eight at Paul Brown Stadium and six straight in the series overall including playoffs winning by an average of eight points per game. The Bengals as a favorite against the Steelers are only 1-8 ATS and as a home favorite versus the Steelers are 0-6 ATS. Cincinnati as a favorite are only 15-34-1 ATS and if you catch them at home as a favorite in the current price range they are 8-20 ATS. Pittsburgh coming off a home game now installed as an underdog are 72-47-4 ATS including 23-8 ATS as an underdog in the current price range. When you put it altogether with the Steelers coming off a home game and now installed as a road underdog in the current price range you have the Steelers with a record of 20-6 against the spread. Our TPR Index has a projected point advantage of 5.79 points in favor of the Steelers. The MM projects a point differential of -7.71 points against the current line range. The SIM Matrix has the Steelers with a 73.16 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number in this contest. With a huge edge in all of the key categories we are going to take the points with the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday in the Queen City.

These two offenses do not scare to many opposing defenses as both teams are ranked in the bottom third of the league in scoring with the Cowboys averaging 16.6 points per game and the Jaguars averaging 20.4 points per game on the season. The other side of the coin you have two Top Ten defenses with Dallas allowing 19.2 points per game and the Jags defense allows an average of 17.2 points per game. Ok so we are taking what? We are playing this one to finish on the high side of the oddsmakers total even knowing those facts. The fundamental averages tell us this game will eclipse the low number the oddsmakers have assigned to this game. Our TPR Index projects a game total average of 47.4-points. The MM projects a game total differential of +8.08-points against the current total range. The SIM Matrix has the Over with a 73.32 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number on this contest. This contest with the current total range also qualifies in our Reverse Total Momentum Matrix both teams projected points scored and points allowed are trending on the high side of their season averages which have this total finishing on the high side today. These two teams have played each other four times since the new millennium, all four games finished Over the posted total. Play OVER on NFL teams coming off an ATS win and going Under in their last game when they are installed as a home underdog in the current price range because these games have posted a record of 57-36-1 Over. When NFL teams are coming off a SU loss, ATS win and going Under versus a non-conference opponent they are 87-54-1 Over. If they are installed as an underdog in that situation they have a record of 59-39-1 Over. Two key team angles tell us the Jags are 6-0 Over as a road favorite coming off a straight and against the spread loss as an underdog. The Cowboys are 6-0 Over as a home underdog when their opponent is coming off a game in which they allowed more than four-hundred yards of total offense. We are going to play this one to finish on the high side of the oddsmakers number Sunday afternoon in Dallas. Over

The Washington Huskies are on the road again for the second straight week after traveling to face the UCLA Bruins last Saturday. It appears the Huskies got caught in a look-ahead situation barely defeating a horrible UCLA team 31 to 24 as a three-touchdown favorite. The Huskies allowed the Bruins to rush for 150 yards on 27 attempts and another 272 yards thru the air. The Huskies come into this contest with one loss on the year that coming in their season-opener on the road in the ATL versus the Auburn Tigers losing 21 to 16. That loss doesn’t look as good as it once did after Auburn lost to LSU and Mississippi State. The Ducks enter this contest with one loss of their own which came against the Tree. The Tree was on the right side of some peculiar events in the game against the Ducks and also benefited from a Ducks coaching staff that failed to just kneel down in stead of trying to the run the ball, not sure why that really happened but it was costly to the Ducks. Oregon controlled this series during the Sarkisian years and the first two years of current head coach Chris Petersen. Petersen was able to turn the tables in 2016 defeating the Ducks 70 to 21 and last season at home winning 38 to 3. Oregon QB Justin Herbert missed last season’s game and his absence from the lineup certainly made Oregon’s chance of winning that game slim at best. He has been waiting a year to play this Huskies team and he has shown he is quite capable of leading the Ducks to a victory on Saturday. Herbert has tossed 15 touchdowns to only five interceptions, completing 64.7 percent of his passes this season. Herbert had led his Ducks to a 4-1 SU record following their win on the road against an improved Cal team 42 to 24 as two-point road favorites prior to their bye-week. Oregon has had two weeks to prepare for the Huskies and we know the Ducks are a perfect 6-0 ATS as underdogs playing with rest. We want to play ON rested home underdogs playing with revenge because they are 136-95-5 ATS including a perfect 10-0-1 ATS as an underdog of five or fewer points. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 4.60 points in favor of the Ducks. The MM projects a point differential of 7.98 points against the current line range of +3.5. The SIM Matrix has the Oregon Ducks with a 74.21 percent advantage against the spread in today’s contest. Washington playing away from home and coming off a straight up win as a favorite in their last game are only 31-49-3 ATS. Oregon coming off a SU win in their last game and now play as an underdog in the current price range are 16-6-2 ATS. The Ducks as a home underdog coming off a SU and ATS win in their last game are 11-2 ATS including a perfect 6-0 ATS in the current price range. Finally, we note the Ducks are 11-3-1 ATS their last fifteen meetings against the Huskies. We will take the points here as Oregon shocks the Huskies and comes away with a straight up victory.

The Penn State Nittany Lions are coming off their bye-week and it couldn’t have come at a better time after their meltdown dropping a twelve-point lead to the Ohio State Buckeyes who eventually won 27 to 26 prior to their bye. Penn State should have won that game they controlled the ball on both sides of the line with more first downs, TOP advantage and outgaining Ohio State by 103 yards. The Nittany Lions offense put up almost five-hundred yards of total offense using a balanced rush and pass attack. The Lions defense held OSU down for most of the game allowing just fourteen points and 219 yards of total offense on their first fifteen possessions. The coaching staff let them down later in the game using a prevent defense which only prevents you from winning that’s all it does here are the numbers. The Buckeyes gained 171 yards and scored fourteen points on their final two possessions. The Lions allowed the Buckeyes to score the go-ahead touchdown with just over two-minutes on the clock. In their loss last season to the Spartans the Lions were installed as -9.5-point road favorites. The favorite in this series has covered in six of the last seven meetings with the lone loser in last season’s meeting. Penn State has covered the spread in six of their last eight games following a bye-week. Michigan State coming off a SU loss as a favorite in their last game are 18-34-1 ATS their next time out. The Spartans coming off a SU and ATS loss as a home favorite in their last outing they are only 11-23 ATS their next time out. Penn State is 21-5-1 ATS covering the spread by 10.56 points per game overall since the 16 campaign. The Nittany Lions are 10-3-1 ATS at home since the 16 season. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 20.6 points. The MM projects a point differential with a 7.62-point advantage against the current line range of -12.0 to -14.5. The SIM Matrix has the Penn State Nittany Lions with a 73.5 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number in this contest. Lay the chalk with the home team on Saturday in Happy Valley.

The Colorado Buffalos opened the 18-campaign destroying their instate rival Colorado State Rams 45 to 13 as seven-point favorites. The Buffs held the Rams to a season-low in yardage with just 284 yards. This is the same Colorado State team that had defeated Hawaii the week before racking up 537 yards passing and another 116 overland in their 43 to 34 win over the Warriors. On to this contest where we note USC has completely dominated this series winners in 12 straight in this annual affair. Three of the last five meetings have seen the Buffalos go down by double-digits so why are we back Colorado on Saturday in LA? Its quite simple in that the Buffalos are finally the better team on both sides of the football. The Trojans are only winning the stat battle by fourteen yards per game this season. The Buffalos on the other hand lead the nation in Pass Completion Percentage with an average of .748 winning the overall stat battle by 136 yards per game. One of the underlying facts about this Buffalos team is that stat battle advantage shows us that Colorado is winning their games by defeating their opponent in the trenches on both sides of the ball. The oddsmakers continue to give the Trojans too much respect and with that we have solid line value with a 5-0 Buffalos team on the road Saturday night. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 1.03 points in favor of Colorado. The MM projects a point differential of -8.05. The SIM Matrix has the Colorado Buffalos with a 73.6 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number on Saturday night. The Colorado Buffalos qualify in our Reverse Momentum Matrix as they continue to trend in positive territory and the Trojans continue trending in negative numbers. The Reverse Momentum Matrix average differential for this contest has the Buffalos with a 2.87 point advantage over the Trojans. Colorado is perfect coming off a SU and ATS win while going Under in their last game posting a record of 6-0 ATS. They are also perfect in conference play in the same situation with a 6-0 ATS record. We want to play ON CFB road teams coming off a pair of SU and ATS wins at home because these teams are 136-89-2 ATS in this situation. We are going to take the points in LA on Saturday night as the Buffalos take the Trojans right down to the wire.