Cajun Sports

The Iowa State Cyclones riding a wave of public opinion and money sending them directly to the Sweet Sixteen after disposing of Kansas in the Big 12 Tournament. Well we are not going to follow those people because we are not that impressed with the Big 12. The Kansas team they defeated was certainly not one of their most talented and not one of their best jobs from the coaching staff either. The Cyclones are not going to face a small club where they can use their four-guard offense to run up and down the court the team they will face is big and strong. The Buckeyes should have little trouble controlling the boards on both ends of the floor against this Cyclones team. The TPR Index projects a point advantage of 1.71 points in favor of the Buckeyes. The MM projects a point differential of -7.47 with a line range of +5.0 to +7.5. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 7.42 with a transitional average of 41.06 and a conversion rate range 40.93 to 42.86. The SIM Matrix has the Ohio State Buckeyes with a 73.71 percent advantage against the spread in this contest. ISU is ranked 222nd in offensive rebounds per game, and Iowa State is only 4-7 as a single-digit favorite since early January. This Buckeyes team they will face is well-balanced having gone toe to toe with Gonzaga last year in the Second Round eventually losing 90 to 84 we expect a similar performance out of this Buckeyes team tonight. We want to play AGAINST CBB teams in the current price range coming off three straight road victories, 53-76-4 ATS including 38-61-1 ATS as a favorite in the current price range. Finally, we want to play AGAINST CBB teams in the current price range coming off three straight SU/ATS wins on the road, 26-50-4 ATS. We are going to take the points here as the Buckeyes take the Cyclones right down to the wire.

The Big Ten taking on the Pac 12 as the Wisconsin Badgers face off against the hottest team in the tournament the Oregon Ducks. The Ducks so favored by the public they went from an underdog to a favorite in their conference title game. They come in riding an eight-game SU/ATS win streak and in many basketball minds they are coming in with the right kind of momentum and should be a force in the tournament. Well we are not of that mind we believe they have taken advantage of low scoring affairs in a conference that does provide quality opponents on a consistent basis like the one they will face today. In fact, the Badgers love those low scoring knockdown drag outs, and this will play right into their wheelhouse. We know first round teams with five returning starters favored by less than a touchdown are 12-3 straight up and 10-3-1 against the number. We also know CBB non-conference underdogs coming off a SU/ATS win as a road favorite are only 84-113-3 ATS including 59-92-2 ATS as a road underdog their next trip to the hardwood. Oregon head coach Dana Altman has proven to be a money-maker in the NCAA Tournament with his teams posting a record of 15-11 against the number including 5-0 SU/ATS in first round games while coaching the Ducks. Although Altman’s Ducks have struggled in this situation when coming off a spread win of more than sixteen points winning just one time straight up in their last five qualifying contests. We want to play against CBB teams coming off three straight SU/ATS road favorite wins because these teams are only 6-23-1 ATS their next trip to the hardwood. The TPR Index projects a point advantage of 9.98 points. The MM projects a point differential of 7.86 with a line range of -1.0 to -3.5. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 7.12 with a transitional average of 40.15 and a conversion rate range 43.62 to 45.39. The SIM Matrix has the Badgers with a 73.66 percent advantage against the spread in this contest. We compared common opponents from this season and the Ducks posted a record of 1-1 SU/ATS averaging 69.0 points per game while allowing opponents to average 61.5 points per game. The Badgers went 3-0 both SU and ATS against the same opponents averaging 3-0 both straight up and against the number scoring an average of 66.3 points per game and allowing just 52.3 points per game. Of course, you need to look at the situations in which these matchups were played you should not blindly assume the Badgers had a huge advantage just based on those numbers. We didn’t do that we used our TPR/MM/SIM/MMF matrixes to determine the true value of those games and the Badgers do hold a solid advantage. With solid fundamental advantages and strong technical situations favoring the Badgers we will lay the short number on Friday as Wisconsin cools the hottest team in the tournament and sends them back to Eugene empty handed.

This matchup features a Number One seed taking on a Number Sixteen. Duke is a public team and one we would in most cases stay away from especially in this situation. There are exceptions to the rule though and here we have a Duke team coming in with a 3-3 straight up record their last six and four losses in their last five against the number. Duke with the return of freshman Zion Williamson are a much different beast and one that this overmatched North Dakota State team doesn’t have an answer for he is just too talented. Even if they could slow Zion the rest of the Duke players would pick up the slack in this one. Coach K will have his troops ready fully focused on the job at hand, they do not want to be on the wrong end of a Cinderella story on Friday night. The TPR Index projects a point advantage of 34.22 points. The MM projects a point differential of 8.06 with a line range of -26.0 to -28.5. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 8.99 with a transitional average of 42.53. In this contest we have an average conversion rate range of 3.91 and a projected range of 7.37 in favor of the Blue Devils. The SIM Matrix has the Duke Blue Devils with a 73.58 percent advantage against the spread in this contest. ND State is 26-43 ATS as a road underdog including 15-29 ATS if they are coming off a SU win. ND State coming off a pair of victories have struggled posting a record of 22-40-1 ATS on the road including 9-25 ATS as a road underdog. That number falls even further if they are facing a team with winning percentage of .667 or better their record in this situation is 5-17 ATS. Duke on the other hand are 17-7-1 ATS in the postseason coming off a SU/ATS win including 15-4-1 ATS if they are favored. We want to play AGAINST CBB postseason road teams coming off a SU win and an ATS loss while going Over, 40-61-2 ATS including 30-54-2 ATS if they are installed as a road underdog. We are going to lay the big number with the Blue Devils on Friday night as Duke rolls to an easy victory and advances.

8* Florida Gators plus the points. No write-up available for this selection

8* Purdue Boilermakers minus the points. No write-up available for this best bet.

The DePaul Blue Demons are taking on the Chippewas of Central Michigan Wednesday night. DePaul returns home after losing on the road to Creighton and St. Johns. The Chips had a three-game win streak halted with a loss to Buffalo in the tournament championship game although they took the Buffalo right down to the final gun losing 85 to 81. This Chippewas team has been cashing tickets for their backers since mid-season with a record of 13-2-1 ATS their last sixteen trips to the hardwood. Another pair of key tech elements highlight the work of the Chippewas in this situation. Central Michigan is 6-0 ATS away from home facing teams who make shots with an average of forty-five percent or more from the field on the season. The Chippewas are also 8-0 ATS on the road facing teams that do a good job of not turning the ball over averaging fourteen or fewer turnovers per game on the season. Two very important factors that will help determine the outcome of this contest tonight. DePaul has shown some signs of life with wins over St. Johns and a blowout victory over Georgetown. Those seem more like anomalies than a true gauge of this Demons team especially with their porous defense ranked 267th in the nation allowing 75.1 points per game on the season. We expect Central Michigan to take advantage of that face with an offense that is ranked 17th in the country averaging 82.6 points per game. The Chippewas have five double-digit scores that can change the complexion of the game in a matter of minutes. We know DePaul struggles against teams who convert eight or more treys per game with a record of 48-70 ATS versus these teams. The Demons are 5-13 ATS versus teams who attempt twenty-one or more treys per game this season. For the Chippewas we know they are 10-3 ATS as an underdog this season including 7-1 ATS as a road underdog. The TPR Index projects a point advantage of 1.90 points in favor of the Chippewas. The MM projects a point differential of -7.83 with a line range of +6.0 to +8.5. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 7.76 with a transitional average of 42.07 and a conversion rate range 44.85 to 46.60. The SIM Matrix has the Chippewas with a 73.31 percent advantage against the spread in this contest. We want to play AGAINST CBB non-conference home teams in the current price range coming off a pair of SU/ATS losses on the road, 43-69-4 ATS including 21-42 ATS as a non-conference home favorite in the current price range. We are going to back the underdog here with solid line value and support from all primary and secondary matrixes. Take the points

The Dallas Mavericks are in Portland to face the Trailblazers on Wednesday night. The Mavericks have for the most part tossed the towel on the 2018-19 campaign. Since the second week of February the Mavericks have won just twice if that is not tossing the towel not sure what would qualify. Well we do have a momentum matrix that helps determine when teams give up on the season and it also supports the tossing the towel theory here. Dallas has seen their Momentum Factor Matrix average on a steady decline since January it had started prior to the February meltdown. The Mavericks come into this game trending solidly in negative territory with a Momentum average of 3.04 out of a possible 10.0 while Portland on the other hand is pushing hard for a first-round homecourt advantage in the playoffs with a Momentum average of 8.11 out of a possible 10.0. The TPR Index projects a point advantage of 17.32 points. The MM projects a point differential of 8.03 with a line range of -9.0 to -11.5. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 8.88 with a transitional average of 43.57 and a conversion rate range 45.71 to 47.98. The SIM Matrix has the Trailblazers with a 74.15 percent advantage against the spread in this contest. Dallas is 6-28 SU away from Big D with a 17-17 ATS record over the same span. Portland is 26-9 SU at home and 22-13 against the spread. We are going to back the Blazers as they continue their push for the postseason. Lay the chalk

The Lipscomb Bison face off against the Wildcats of Davidson in the NIT Basketball Tournament tipping off Tuesday night. The Bison come into this contest as a short underdog a role in which they have excelled posting a record of five wins to just one loss against the spread as an underdog. This Lipscomb team can catch up quickly if they fall behind, they have the ability to shoot their way right back into any game ranked tenth nationally with an average of 83.4 points per game. If you are not familiar with the Bison, you may think they ran those numbers up against weak competition, but you would be wrong. Lipscomb went on the road and defeated SMU, TCU and almost took down Louisville in a hard-fought contest. The Bison are led by senior guard Garrison Mathews who averaged 20.1 points per game and nailed triples at a rate of 41.2 percent on the season. For their opponent the treys have not been as consistent as some of their recent editions. In fact a prime example of how the three has let them down on occasion this season they went seven of thirty from behind the arc against Saint Louis in the A10 Tournament and needless to say that was their final game. Our primary and secondary matrix averages all point to Lipscomb as the favorite here. The TPR Index projects a point advantage of 5.86 points in favor of the visitors. The MM projects a point differential of -7.94 with a line range of +2.0 to +4.5. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 7.88 with a transitional average of 42.45 and a conversion rate range 46.19 to 48.97. The SIM Matrix has the Bison with a 74.14 percent advantage against the spread in this contest. Lipscomb has done a nice job on the road when it comes to covering the spread, they are 15-4-1 ATS their last twenty away from home including in the role of underdog where they have posted a record of 14-4-1 ATS. When the Bison are coming off a straight up loss and playing on the road, they are 7-1-1 ATS including 5-0-1 ATS as a road underdog. We want to play AGAINST CBB non-conference teams coming off a straight up and against the spread loss as a favorite in their last game which went Under the posted total, 72-102-3 ATS including 31-54-2 ATS if they are installed as a non-conference favorite. With strong fundamental support on both ends of the floor as well as strong technical support we are going to take the points in this one as we get our first upset in the NIT tonight.

The Islanders did not take the ice on Monday after earning a 3 to 2 overtime win against host Minnesota on Sunday. The Bruins last played Saturday, when they snapped a three-game losing streak defeating the visiting Columbus Blue Jackets, 2 to 1, in overtime. Islanders goalie Thomas Greiss had one of the best weeks of his career in recording the win Sunday, when he made thirty-two saves. He was named the NHL's first star of the week Monday in recognition of going 3-1-0 with a 1.25 goals against average while recording a .959 save percentage and facing the most shots in the NHL (121) over that span. The recent surge began with Robin Lehner sidelined due to an upper-body injury believed to be a concussion. Lehner, who started 19 of the Islanders' first 28 games of 2019 before getting hurt against Ottawa he was establishing himself as a Vezina Trophy candidate by going 20-11-5 with a 2.19 goals-against average. But now Greiss, who is 22-12-2 this season with a 2.21 goals-against average, has basically become Lehner's equal. It's a nice problem for the Islanders to have as they head toward the playoffs for the first time since 2016. "We haven't overextended our goalies all year," Islanders head coach Barry Trotz said after Greiss recorded a 31-save shutout in a 2-0 win over the Blue Jackets earlier this month. "I don't see any reason for concern right now." Boston will likely turn to Tuukka Rask, who has started five of the last eight games and thirty-nine overall this season. Jaroslav Halak started and earned the win Saturday by making nineteen saves. Regardless of who starts at goalie, the Bruins will expect to continue the defensive effort they displayed against the Blue Jackets. Boston, which allowed fifteen goals during its three-game losing streak, limited Columbus to just twenty shots on Saturday. The NHL TPR Index projects a game total of 4.02 goals. The NHL MM projects a total goal differential of -1.58 goals against the oddsmakers current total. The NHL SIM Matrix has the Under with a 71.92 percent advantage against the current game total. We want to play UNDER on NHL home teams in the current total range with a team outscoring their opponents by 0.2 or more goals per game in the first period, after winning their previous game in overtime, 78-149 Under. With significant support for the low side we are going to play this one to come up short of the oddsmakers number on Tuesday night. Under

The Oklahoma City Thunder play host to the Miami Heat on Monday night. The Thunder just played host to the Golden State Warriors and the outcome was never in doubt as the Warriors rolled to a 110 to 88 victory. That loss on the heels of a tough loss at Indiana with the Thunder falling 108 to 106 Thursday night. OKC is 4-4 their last eight trips to the hardwood while the Heat have come alive after many had given up on them making the postseason, they have won six of their last eight. Heat HC Spoelstra has changed his starting five and that has made a dramatic difference in the outcome of their games they are winning. The Thunder took the last meeting between the two clubs winning in South Beach 118 to 102 as -3.5-point road favorites back on February 1st. This matchup will draw little attention from the home team they have the Raptors on deck Wednesday. The TPR Index projects a point advantage of 1.91 points in favor of the visitors. The MM projects a point differential of -7.89 with a line range of +5.0 to +7.5. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 7.60 with a transitional average of 41.38 and a conversion rate range 44.37 to 46.52. The SIM Matrix has the Rockets with a 73.96 percent advantage against the spread in this contest. The Heat are 21-11 ATS as an underdog this season including a record of 15-7 ATS as a road underdog. Over the last two seasons the Heat are 24-13 ATS as a road underdog of six or fewer points. Miami is also 25-11 ATS when playing on back-to-back nights the last three seasons. In the Thunders loss to Golden State Saturday night they were installed as two-point favorites in the loss. We know the Oklahoma City Thunder are 0-8 ATS in home games coming off an upset loss of ten or more points as a favorite. NBA teams coming off five games at home and now installed as an underdog in the current price range are 17-7 ATS their next trip to the hardwood. With significant support for the visitors we will take the points in OKC on Monday night as the Heat take the Thunder down to the final gun.