Cajun Sports

[ESPN] The boys from the City of Angels are on the road in Queen City Monday night for the second featured contest as the Bengals play host to the Rams. The Rams come into this game with a 1-1 SU record on the young season while the Bengals have yet to get into the win column. The line on this contest opened with Cincinnati -6.5 but with the questionable status of Bengals QB Joe Burrow the number has been bet down to -1.5. There was supposed to be an update after the morning walkthrough, but the most recent news is it could be a game time decision. Conflicting reports about Burrow do not keep us off this play, we still like the Bengals in this situation. Cincinnati is 15-3 SU and 16-2 ATS in its last eighteen non-division games, including 6-0 straight up and against the spread at home The oddsmakers have adjusted the number to reflect his absence and if the team confirms he will start we will see that line start to move against us. The Bengals have an outstanding offensive team, and they should be solid on defense but the first two games this season have been terrible. One must believe with a defensive coordinator the caliber of Lou Anarumo they will right the ship and get this defense back to the level they have been in the recent past. LA is also dealing with some key injuries, most notable Cooper Kupp who will be out for a couple more weeks. Puka Nacua has stepped up nicely but the absence of Kupp will be noticeable. With Cincinnati coming off back-to-back losses we know the Rams are 0-6-2 against the spread versus AFC North opponents in this situation. The TPR Index projects a point advantage of 6.89 points. The MM projects a point differential of +6.63 points against the current line range. The SIM Matrix has the Cincinnati Bengals with a 73.92 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number. Play AGAINST a non-division underdog of 3 points or less off a SU loss of less than 13 points with 25+ first downs last week, 20-33 ATS (38%). Play ON a winless team (not an underdog of more than 6 points) off a non-OT SU loss of less than 5 points last week vs. an opponent not off a SU loss of 11+ points, 68-49 ATS (58%). Play ON NFL playoff teams from a year ago who have a current record between 0-2 SU and 0-4 SU on the season, 56-35 ATS (62%). With significant support for the home team, we will look for the Bengals to get into the win column both straight up and against the spread versus the Rams on Monday night.

The boys from the Big Easy are in cheese country where they have a Sunday afternoon date against the host Packers. The Saints come in with a perfect 2-0 record to start the season. New Orleans is in a tough scheduling spot having played Monday night in Carolina and then having to travel after just getting past the Panthers 20 to 17. Green Bay is coming off a pair of road games to open the 23-campaign winning big in the Second City defeating the Bears 38 to 20 in their opener and then losing a tough one last week in the ATL 25 to 24. Green Bay is 17-9 ATS coming off a loss in their last game. This is the Packers home opener, and they are 15-1 SU and 13-2-1 ATS the last sixteen home openers including 8-1-1 ATS the last ten years. Green Bay is 23-13 ATS at home overall since the 19 season. Packers have the edge on offense especially at the QB position with Jordan Love getting out of the gate with six touchdowns while his counterpart Derek Carr has struggled. The TPR Index projects a point advantage of 7.88 points in favor of the Packers. The MM projects a point differential of +5.67 points against the current line range. The SIM Matrix has the Green Bay Packers with a 73.90 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number. Play ON a non-division team (not a favorite of 7+ points) with a TOTAL under 44 points before a Thursday game next week and off a road contest in its last game vs. an opponent not off a home favorite SU loss in its last game, 41-25-4 ATS (62%). With the better overall team playing at home against a road weary Saints club we will lay the short price with the Packers on Sunday afternoon at Lambeau.

The Carolina Panthers take to the highway headed to the Pacific Northwest for their first road game this season after playing their opening two games at home. The Panthers are working on short rest after dropping their most recent affair on Monday night to the New Orleans Saints. The Seahawks were on the road last week in the Motor City needing an extra stanza to dispatch the hometown Lions last Sunday. Seattle QB Geno Smith threw for 328 yards and two touchdowns in the Seabirds victory. We expect to see another solid outing from Smith and this Seahawks offense on Sunday against a Carolina team that has too many holes on both sides of the ball. They will also be without rookie starting QB Bryce Young who has been ruled out for today’s game which means the old man Andy Dalton will get the start. Never been a fan of Dalton and Seattle hasn’t been putting much pressure on opposing quarterbacks, but Dalton is not nearly as mobile as Young, so we are expecting the Seahawks defense to have a solid outing overall. The TPR Index projects a point advantage of 11.32 points in favor of the Seahawks. The MM projects a point differential of +5.74 points against the current line range. The SIM Matrix has the Seattle Seahawks with a 73.97 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number. With significant support for the home team, we will back the Seahawks and lay the chalk as they roll to an easy victory over the Panthers on Sunday.

The Buffalo Bills are on the road in the nation’s capital for an expected wet afternoon affair against the host Commanders. There is a strong chance of some heavy rain during this contest although they say it should diminish as the game progresses. Two of the league’s best defenses take the field on Sunday and both offenses will look to run the ball and control the clock. This should definitely put us in a position to cash the total with rain, making the passing game difficult. Even if the weatherman is wrong and we get a much dryer than expected contest we still believe the teams will look to control the clock and play defense. Play Under in early season affairs with AFC road favorites versus NFC foes when the total is 48 or less points, 2-18 Under. Play Under on non-division teams coming off a straight up win of at least twenty-eight points in a game in which they were favored by at least a touchdown, 3-17-1 Under. Our TPR Index projects a game total of 38.9 points. The MM projects a total point differential of -6.01 points against the current total range in this contest. The SIM Matrix has the UNDER with a 73.99 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number in today’s game. Play UNDER on a home underdog with a TOTAL under 45 points off a road SU win last week vs. an opponent off a home SU win scoring 25-44 points last week, 9-21-3 Under. With key situational elements along with strong fundamentals all pointing to a low total we will play this one to come up well short of the oddsmakers total on Sunday in DC.

[CBS] The Ole Miss Rebels are on the SEC road in T-Town Saturday afternoon taking on an Alabama team that should have a rather large sized chip on their shoulders after such a poor performance last week at South Florida. The Rebels will face an Alabama team that has fallen out of the Top Ten for the first time since early 2015. Ouch. The last two meetings here have been won by Bama by twenty-one points and twenty-eight points. This series has been dominated by the Tide who have won fifteen of the last sixteen meetings between the two programs. Alabama is certainly not playing like the teams we are accustomed to seeing from a Saban coached club but the key for Saban has been the ability to get the most out of the players he has and make the necessary adjustments to get them back to their winning ways. After such a strange performance from the Tide against the Bulls last week we imagine this week of preparation was quite intense. In fact, sources close to the program suggested we would see a much different Tide team on Saturday afternoon. We know Saban has held serve against his former assistants with a record of 28-3. If the Tide has been playing below expectations based on point spread performances prior to facing one, they are a perfect 2-0 both straight up and against the spread coming off back-to-back spread losses winning by an average of twenty-four points per game. Bama is 14-6-1 ATS as a home chalk over the last four seasons. Mississippi is coming in off three victories to open the 23 campaign but the last two have had misleading finals. In their win against Tulane, they faced a backup QB and trailed 17 to 13 at the half. In the end they got a late fumble return for a touchdown which gave them the 37 to 20 final, but the game was much closer than the numbers would suggest. In their most recent game against the Yellow Jackets Ole Miss blocked a 43-yard FG attempt and drove the short field of 34 years for a TD leading 10 to 3 at the half. After Tech failed on a fake punt attempt the Rebels got the ball on the Tech 28 and proceeded to drive the short field for a touchdown. These were just a couple of the plays that stretched the Rebels lead and helped produce another misleading final score. Its highly unlikely they get those types of advantages today against this Tide team. Coach Saban is a solid 21-7-1 ATS in conference games coming off back-to-back spread losses including 8-0-1 ATS off a double-digit victory. Saban and his troops are a perfect 4-0 both straight up and against the number when facing undefeated opponents winning by an average of thirty points per game over that span. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 13.62 points. The MM projects a point differential of +8.04 points against the current line range in this contest. The SIM Matrix has the Crimson Tide with a 74.4 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number in today’s game. With an all systems go on the Crimson Tide we will lay the chalk as the Pachyderms roll to another victory over Ole Miss on Saturday afternoon in Title Town.

[FOX] This game features the new Pac 2 Conference as neither of these clubs have a conference home for next season. Both teams come into this contest undefeated, and both are playing some pretty solid football at the moment. The Beavers picked up their first series victory last season in Corvalis since 2014 which was nine attempts to get in the win column versus the Cougars. The Beavers are just 2-7 ATS when installed as chalk on the road. The Cougars are 5-1 against the spread their last six as home underdogs and 6-3 ATS their last nine games overall. Washington State is averaging forty-six points per game on 521 yards of total offense per contest. This came against Colorado State and an upset victory over Wisconsin as +5.5-point underdogs. Cougars QB Cameron Ward has quietly put-up solid numbers for years and he comes into this contest completing over seventy-two percent of this passes for 986 yards this season with a TD/INT ration of 9-0. On paper the Beavers appear to have the better defense, but you don’t win games on paper and if you look at the level of competition the Beavers have faced those numbers really do not mean anything. Oregon State is also 3-0 on the season but they have been favored in all three by 14, 23.5 and 24.5 not playing a who’s who of college football to this point in the season. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 4.1 points in favor of the Cougars. The MM projects a point differential of -6.40 points against the current line range in this contest. The SIM Matrix has the Cougars with a 73.86 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number in tonight’s game. Play ON a home team (not a favorite of more than 2 points or underdog of more than 6 points) off 2 home SU wins, 46-29-3 ATS (61.3%). With significant support for the home team, we will take the points as Washington State remains undefeated and sends the Beavers back to Corvalis with their first loss of the season.

[ESPN+] The Western Michigan Broncos are on the MAC road to open conference play against last year’s MAC Champion Toledo. Oh, yea the Broncos are also playing into revenge as they defeated this Rockets team in the regular season finale last year. Toledo had already clinched the MAC West title coming into that game against Western Michigan on the road and were most likely looking ahead to the Conference Championship Game against Ohio. In the game against Western Michigan the Rockets pulled QB Dequan Finn early and backup Gleason went 13 of 38 for 200 yards in the loss. Even though the Rockets lost last year versus Western Michigan their defense held the Broncos to just 188 yards of total offense. We expect a much better performance overall from the Rockets on Saturday afternoon. They are the better overall team including a huge advantage in the experience department plus Western Michigan has a 1st year head coach so growing pains and difficult changes are to be expected. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 26.7 points. The MM projects a point differential of +6.58 points against the current line range in this contest. The SIM Matrix has the Rockets with a 73.86 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number in today’s game. With significant support for the home team, we will lay the chalk with the Rockets as they avenge last season’s loss to this Broncos team.

The Seattle Mariners, Houston Astros and Texas Rangers are involved in a serious playoff race in which they may not all make it into the postseason. With just over a week left in the regular season games for these teams are what would be considered must win games. The Rangers took a small advantage with their win last night 8 to 5 over the Mariners team. We look for another strong performance from this Rangers club as they fight to ensure their ticket gets punched for the postseason. Texas has done a nice job this season when facing right-handed pitching with an OPS of .792 for the season. The Mariners will send Logan Gilbert to the bump with his 13-6 SU record and his ERA of 3.77 on the year. That record includes a 9-1 SU mark away from home with an ERA of 3.41. Gilbert has been solid this season but over the past month his ERA of risen to 4.50 over his last four starts. His last four starts away from home have seen him give up fourteen runs. In his last three starts he is 1-1 SU with an ERA of 5.71. With the Rangers bats hot right now having scored twenty-nine runs in their last three games this could spell trouble for Gilbert and the Mariners tonight. The Rangers will send Jordan Montgomery to the mound with his record of 9-11 SU while carrying an ERA of 3.38. At home he is 6-5 SU with an ERA of 3.88 on the year. In his last three starts he is 1-1 SU with an ERA of 2.75. His last two starts have seen him toss fourteen innings allowing a single earned run over that span. Our TPR Index projects a run advantage of 1.42 runs in favor of the Rangers. The SIM Matrix projects a 73.94 percent advantage for the Rangers in tonight’s contest. Play AGAINST MLB underdogs when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start, 1107-1753 SU (38.7%)(+$2,209). With strong support from the power index and the Rangers hitting the ball extremely well right now we will back the Rangers on Saturday night.

The boys from Wisconsin are on the road in West Lafayette where they face off against the host Purdue Boilermakers Friday night. The Badgers have won their last nine trips here and overall dominance to the tune of 16-0 straight up and 13-3 ATS the last sixteen times these two have faced off with the last three wins coming by double-digits with an average of 16.3 points per game. The Boilers are 0-6 against the spread their last six here. The Badgers are coming off a 35 to 14 victory over Georgia Southern last week. Purdue is coming off a 35 to 20 home loss to Syracuse. The Boilers have not played a tough schedule to this point and their defense has allowed thirty points per game to this point. The Badgers did lose their only road game so far this season at Wash St. In that game they had the yardage and first down advantage unfortunately they were done in by a negative three in the turnover category. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 10.65 points. The MM projects a point differential of 5.10 points against the current line range in this contest. The SIM Matrix has the Badgers with a 72.6 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number in tonight’s game. With solid fundamental support as well as strong situational elements all pointing to a Badgers win and cover, we will lay the chalk with Wisconsin in West Lafayette on Friday night.

The New York Mets are in Philly playing a four-game set against the host Phillies. Philadelphia took Game One on Thursday, winning 5 to 4 over the Mets. Every game is crucial for the Phillies as they hold a five-game lead in the top spot of the NL Wild Card race. The Phillies have won five of their last seven games including a series win over the Braves. The Mets are not eliminated from the playoffs yet, but they are eight games out of the Wild Card race with a very limited chance of securing a spot. The Mets will send Tylor Megill to the bump with his 8-8 SU record and his ERA of 4.94 on the year. On the road Megill is 2-5 SU with an ERA of 7.08. The Phillies will counter with Taijuan Walker who has been solid this season posting a record of 15-5 SU and an ERA of 4.45 on the season. At home he is 7-2 SU carrying an ERA of 3.70. Our TPR Index projects a run advantage of 1.58 runs in favor of the Phillies. The SIM Matrix projects a 73.98 percent advantage for the Phillies in tonight’s contest. Play AGAINST MLB underdogs when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start, 1105-1749 SU (38.7%)(+$1,823 against). With significant support for Philadelphia, we will lay the chalk on Friday night with the Phillies.

[AMAZON] The boys in blue remained on the west coast this week instead of flying home to New York from the desert and then having to fly back to San Francisco on a short week. The Giants rallied from twenty points down to defeat the Cardinals 31 to 28 while the Niners were busy defeating the Rams 30 to 23. Even with both offenses coming off games where they scored at least thirty points we do not expect that type of offensive output from either team tonight. The Giants failed to score a single point in any of their first six quarters of this season, and although they managed to score thirty-one points in the second half of the Cardinals game, most of that was because they were so far behind that they needed to be really aggressive. They will play a much different type of football tonight against this Niners defense. The Giants receiving corps are far too thin to make up for the loss of Saquon Barkley. Their leading receiver Darius Slayton is averaging a mere three receptions per game. The Giants defense will play well enough to keep the Niners offense from putting up thirty points again. And their lack of offensive prowess against the Niners D should keep this one well below the total tonight. Our TPR Index projects a game total of 36.8 points. The MM projects a total point differential of -6.57 points against the current total range in this contest. The SIM Matrix has the UNDER with a 73.94 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number in tonight’s game. With strong fundamentals supporting the low side of the total we will play this one to come up well short of the oddsmakers total in San Francisco on Thursday night.