Cajun Sports

The New York Mets are in the Mile High City for a four-game set against the hometown Rockies with Game One set for Monday night. The Mets are playing the final series of a ten-game road swing before returning to the Apple to play three against the LA Dodgers. The Mets won yesterday 5 to 3 over Arizona but that was just their second win posting a record of 2-4 SU to this point. The Rockies have not fared any better they lost two of three to the Rangers over the weekend after posting a 1-6 SU record in the previous seven games leading into that series with the Rangers. The Rockies are 21-33 SU (+2133 against) since August of 2017 including a record of 13-22 SU (+1025) since early May of this season. The role of underdog has not motivated this Rockies team of late with a record of 1-7 SU (+565 against) as an underdog. The Rockies will send left-hander Tyler Anderson to the bump with his 4-1 SU record and his ERA of 4.48 on the season. Anderson matched his longest start of the season on Wednesday, allowing one run while striking out six over seven innings of work in a 7 to 2 win over the Phillies. Anderson has struggled at Coors posting a record of 1-1 SU with a 5.14 ERA in five starts at Coors Field this season, compared to the road where he has been solid with a record of 3-0 SU and an ERA of 4.08 in nine trips to the bump on the highway. Anderson will be making his first start against the Mets since a no-decision in July of 2016, where he allowed one run over six innings of work. The Mets will send Jacob deGrom to the hill with his 4-2 SU record and his ERA of 1.55 on the year. DeGrom has raced out front leading the majors with a 0.87 ERA since mid-April striking out eighty-three hitters walking seventeen in ten starts over that span. In his last outing on Wednesday he suffered what has become a common occurrence pitching a gem but in the end taking a tough loss despite tossing seven innings allowing one run with no walks while striking out seven in their 2 to 0 loss to the Braves. DeGrom has five career starts in the Mile High City posting a remarkable 3-0 SU record with an unreal ERA of 0.99. Those numbers are impressive when you consider the situation they came from an opposing starter at Coors Field, impressive. Our TPR Index projects a run advantage of 1.68 runs in favor of the Mets. The SIM Matrix has New York with a 73.56 percent advantage against the Rockies on Monday. Our next set of metrics gives us an overall Pitchers Power Rating based on the situation. In this matrix Tyler Anderson has an average for this game of 95 and Jacob deGrom comes into this game with an average of 129 compared to the league average of 100. The higher the pitchers average the better they should perform in the current situation. The SPMatrix has Tyler Anderson with an average of 6.51 and Jacob deGrom has an average of 7.98. Our BHOR (Bases, Hits, Outs and Runs) Matrix has a projected advantage of 1.77 runs in favor of the Mets in this contest. The Mets have done a nice job on the road in the role of favorite they are 13-6 SU (+555) when installed as chalk on the highway. We want to play ON MLB road favorites in the first game of a series playing with no rest and facing a team that has a better record on the season, 59-39 SU (60.2%) (+1095). We want to play ON MLB road favorites coming off a game in which they scored more runs off the bullpen than they did off the starter in their last game, 279-173 SU (61.7%) (+4788). We want to play ON MLB road favorites coming off a game in which they scored more runs off the bullpen than they did off the starter in their last game, 651-429 SU (60.3%) (+8382). The Rockies bullpen was supposed to be a strength this season as projected by many pundits prior to the start of the season. Well they let the team down again on Sunday allowing seven runs in three and third innings of relief. The Rockies have a home bullpen ERA of 6.23 with a WHIP of 1.535 converting just 36.4 percent on the year. The combination of all these factors point to a New York Mets victory on Monday night in the Mile High City so lay the short number with DeGrom and the Mets.

The Philadelphia Phillies are in Milwaukee for a three-game weekend set against the host Brewers. The third and final game of this set will be played on Sunday afternoon with the Phillies coming off a bounce-back victory on Saturday defeating the Brewers 4 to 1 to even the series at a game apiece. It was Hoskins who led the way on Saturday going 3 for 4 with a double and a solo shot. This on the heels of a rough month in May for Hoskins with time on the DL also but he looks as though he is ready for a strong finish. The Brewers will send right-hander Chase Anderson to the bump with his 5-5 SU record and his ERA of 4.13 on the season. Anderson tossed seven scoreless innings in his last outing of a 4 to 0 win last Tuesday versus the Cubs. In Anderson’s first ten starts this season he gave up thirteen long balls in just ten innings of work. He evidently corrected that problem because he hasn’t given up any in his last three starts. Anderson has struggled when facing the Phillies posting a record of 1-2 SU (team 1-3 SU) with an ERA of 5.85 and a WHIP of 1.500. The Phillies will send right-hander Aaron Nola to the hill with his record of 8-2 SU and his ERA of 2.27 on the year. Nola followed his second loss of the season back on May 20 with four straight quality starts allowing a mere six runs over twenty-six and third innings of work. On Tuesday Nola held the Rockies to one run on four hits over six and two-thirds innings of work. In that game Nola has ten strikeouts reaching double-digits in strikeouts for the third time since early May. Aaron Nola is 3-0 SU with an ERA of 1.38 in four career starts versus Milwaukee. Our TPR Index projects a run advantage of 1.48 runs in favor of the Phillies. The SIM Matrix has Philadelphia with a 73.55 percent advantage against the Brewers on Sunday afternoon. Our next set of metrics gives us an overall Pitchers Power Rating based on the situation. In this matrix Chase Anderson has an average for this game of 79 and Aaron Nola comes into this game with an average of 128 compared to the league average of 100. The higher the pitchers average the better they should perform in the current situation. The SPMatrix has Chase Anderson with an average of 5.28 and Aaron Nola has an average of 8.86. Our BHOR (Bases, Hits, Outs and Runs) Matrix has a projected advantage of 1.56 runs in favor of the Phillies in this contest. The Phillies get the call in this contest as they take the victory on Sunday while securing a series win.

The boys from DC are north of the border playing a weekend set versus the Blue Jays of Toronto with Game Two set for Saturday afternoon. The Blue Jays took the opener on Friday night by a score of 6 to 5 over the Nationals. The Blue Jays will try to secure the series victory with a win on Saturday afternoon. They will send right-hander Marco Estrada to the bump with his 3-6 SU record and his ERA of 5.09 on the season. Estrada appears to have turned his season around going 1-0 SU with an ERA of 2.25 over his two trips to the bump in June. In his last outing the Blue Jays got the win versus Baltimore on Sunday but Estrada gave up two long balls which accounted for the two runs he has given up this month. Over his seventy innings of work this season Estrada has surrendered fourteen of the long ones. The Nationals will counter with right-hander Max Scherzer who has a record of 10-2 SU with an ERA of 2.00 on the season. Scherzer suffered a rare loss which halted his nine-game winning streak in the game he allowed just two runs with four hits over seven innings of work against the Giants striking out nine in the loss on Sunday. Scherzer has held opposing hitters to a batting average of just .171 over the course of the season. Scherzer is a perfect 3-0 SU with an ERA of 1.98 in four trips to the hill at the Rogers Centre. This pitching matchup faced one another way back in 2015 with Estrada and his team won the game 7 to 3. That matchup does not qualify in our Starting Pitcher Reverse System it must be a same-season rematch just like the Cubs win last night. I mentioned this because we will get an email asking why this matchup didn’t qualify in our system. Our TPR Index projects a run advantage of 2.04 runs in favor of the Nationals. The SIM Matrix has Washington with a 74.39 percent (74+% / SPM Differential +4.0 or more qualifies Washington as a Trophy Club Best Bet) advantage against the Blue Jays on Saturday afternoon. Our next set of metrics gives us an overall Pitchers Power Rating based on the situation. In this matrix Marco Estrada has an average for this game of 76 and Max Scherzer comes into this game with an average of 144 compared to the league average of 100. The higher the pitchers average the better they should perform in the current situation. The SPMatrix has Marco Estrada with an average of 4.80 and Max Scherzer has an average of 9.98. Our BHOR (Bases, Hits, Outs and Runs) Matrix has a projected advantage of 2.23 runs in favor of the Blue Jays in this contest. We want to play AGAINST MLB teams when their starter struck out at least nine batters in his last start and went less than seven innings (339-288 SU +1258 against). Play AGAINST MLB home underdogs coming off a home game in which their bullpen allowed multiple runs (971-1374 SU +8217 when playing against). The Blue Jays are 94-150 SU as an underdog for a profit of +2662 units when playing against them in this situation. The Blue Jays are 4-14 SU as a home underdog for a profit of +876 units when playing against them in this role. We want to play ON MLB road favorites coming off a road game in which they had more strikeouts than hits (1017-766 SU +2380). We want to play ON MLB -120 or more favorites coming off a straight up loss in a game in which they held the lead (334-189 SU +3730). We want to play ON MLB road favorites after they lost in his last start versus the current opponent (559-387 SU +4776). Play ON MLB -120 or more favorites coming off a straight up loss in a game in which they held the lead (190-87 SU +4789). The Nationals are 300-240 SU on the road (+3974). The Nationals are 200-108 SU (+5091) as a road favorite. The Nationals have the advantage on offense and on the defensive side as well the overall advantage is not close. Washington and Scherzer will get the victory and tie this series at a game apiece. Lay the large number with the Nationals on Saturday afternoon north of the border.

The boys from the Second City are in St. Louis for a three-game weekend set against the host Cardinals with Game One set for Friday night. These teams are bitter rivals we should see an outstanding series this weekend with a couple good pitching matchups on tap. The first happens to be the best as far as a play on position for us. The Cardinals will send Michael Wacha to the bump with his 8-1 SU record and his ERA of 2.46 on the season. Wacha is coming off a win in his last start, which came against the Reds on the road Saturday. He tossed 5.2 innings, allowing two runs on four hits with three walks and six strikeouts in a 6 to 4 Cardinals victory. Wacha is 4-8 SU with a 6.06 ERA and a WHIP of 1.529 in his career versus the Cubs. The team is 6-10 SU behind him in those starts versus Chicago. The Cubs will counter with Jon Lester who has a record of 7-2 SU with an ERA of 2.22 on the year. Lester earned the win in his last outing on Saturday at home against the Pirates. He tossed seven shutout innings, allowing one hit with two walks and five strikeouts in a 2 to 0 Cubs victory. Lester is 3-0 SU with a 1.80 ERA, a 0.80 WHIP, five walks and eighteen strikeouts over twenty innings of work in his last three trips to the hill. He is 3-1 SU with a 1.84 ERA, a WHIP of 1.182, sixteen free passes and forty-five strikeouts in forty-four innings of work in his seven career starts at Busch Stadium. Lester has an overall career record of 8-5 SU with an ERA of 2.10 versus the Cardinals with the team 11-8 SU behind him on the hill. These two teams and starters faced off on May 6 right here with the Cardinals getting the 4 to 3 victory over Lester and the Cubs. Lester tossed 5.3 innings allowing two earned runs on six hits in the loss. Wacha had a very similar box score and neither starter was involved in the decision. This matchup qualifies in our Starting Pitcher Revenge System and our SP Reverse Momentum System. We want to play ON the starter whose team took the loss in the first same season matchup. That is the basis for the system but not all the parameters those will stay exclusive to us for now. The SP Reverse Momentum System also plays on the losing team in this same-season pitching matchup but it’s baseline parameters are not only based on the starters but the entire team. This particular situation only happens a couple times a year of course there are some seasons with more active dates but it’s rare. Here is a system that backs our premise for playing on the losing starter in this situation. We want to play ON MLB road favorites after they lost in his last start versus the current opponent (556-387 SU +4476). Our TPR Index projects a run advantage of 1.74 runs in favor of the Cubs. The SIM Matrix has the Cubs with a 74.28 percent advantage against the Cardinals on Friday night. The SPMatrix has Michael Wacha with an average of 7.17 and Jon Lester has an average of 7.69. Our BHOR (Bases, Hits, Outs and Runs) Matrix has a projected advantage of 1.87 runs in favor of the Cubs in this contest. The Cubs are 9-3 SU (+574) on the road since mid-May. We want to play ON MLB road favorites coming off a road game in which they had more strikeouts than hits (1015-766 SU +2180). We want to play ON MLB road favorites after they lost in his last start versus the current opponent We want to play ON MLB favorites coming off back-to-back games where they were shut out in both contests (73-35 SU +2552). We want to play AGAINST MLB underdogs with rest after they scored in at most two separate innings in their last game (255-409 SU +4950). We are going to back the visitors on Friday night in St. Louis, Cubs