Cajun Sports

The Golden State Warriors were in the Twin Cities last night taking on the Timberwolves. They now must travel to the Mile High City and play at elevation in the second of a back-to-back. After suffering a fourth quarter collapse last night fatigue could certainly play a key role in this one. A weakened Warriors team facing a well-rested Nuggets team should cause problems for Golden State on both ends of the floor. We expect the Warriors to sit some of their key starting personnel for tonight’s game. Even if they didn’t, we still favor the Nuggets in this one. The Denver offense led by Nikola Jokic has one of the most efficient offenses in the league. The Nuggets rank first in offensive rating and score the sixth most points per game on the season. We are not going to go through all of the stats that support our play on the Denver Nuggets tonight they are readily available online. Although we will share our numbers as they favor the Nuggets in this situation. The TPR Index projects a point advantage of 18.52 points. The MM projects a point differential of +7.96 against the current line range. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 7.67. The SIM Matrix has the Denver Nuggets with a 73.98 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number in this contest. We know Golden State as a conference road underdog and coming off an ATS loss as a favorite are only 38-70-2 ATS. The Warriors as a conference underdog and coming off a SU/ATS loss as a favorite are only 34-60-2 ATS. Finally the Warriors in all games versus Denver and coming off a SU/ATS loss as a favorite are only 34-61-2 ATS. With solid support both situationally and fundamentally for the home team we will lay the double-digits on Thursday night in the Mile High City as the Nuggets roll to an easy victory over the Warriors. DENVER NUGGETS

The FAU Owls are on the Conference USA road for a Thursday night game against the host Blazers of UAB at Bartow Arena in Birmingham Alabama. The red-hot Owls arrive riding a twenty-game win streak while the Blazers have managed a two-game winning streak off back-to-back wins. The Blazers could pull off the upset here tonight it wouldn’t come as some huge surprise to this bureau but our interest is on the total. These two faced one another back on January 5th with the Owls coming away with a hard-fought victory winning 88 to 86. The Owls average 74.4 points per game versus teams that allow an average of 70.5 points per game. On the defensive end of the floor the Owls allow an average of 65.2 points per game versus teams that average 69.6 points per game. FAU has an offensive adjusted efficiency margin of +15.67 which has them ranked thirty-ninth in the nation. UAB comes into this contest averaging 83.5 points per game at home this season versus teams that normally only allow 70.7 points per game. On the defensive end of the hardwood the Blazers allow an average of 66.1 points per game versus teams that average 70.2 points per game. UAB has an offensive adjusted efficiency rating margin of +10.85 which has them ranked seventy-first in the nation. Our numbers favor the high side of tonight’s total. The TPR Index projects a game total of 153.6 points. The MM projects a total point differential of +8.07 against the current total range. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 7.42 with a transitional average of 42.35. The SIM Matrix has the OVER with a 73.99 percent advantage against the oddsmakers total in this contest. Play OVER on CBB teams with a total of 148.0 or lower with both teams off SU wins, TPR average of 152.25 or higher and an MM +7.75 or better, 87-53-3 Over including 10-0 Over if both teams have a win percentage of .625 or better on the year. With support for the high side of the oddsmakers total we will play this one to sail over that number in Birmingham tonight. OVER

The Toronto Raptors are in Utah tonight playing the fifth game of a seven-game road trip as they take on the Jazz. This will be the first of two regular season games between the teams. Toronto has split the first four games going 2-2 SU but they have been a money maker of late posting a 4-2 spread record in their last six games overall. A few nights ago, in their game against the Warriors they lost Anunoby to a wrist injury and we mention this because the Raptors are actually a much better offensive scoring team with him off the floor. You may wonder why they play him well its because the Raptors are a much better defensive team with him in the lineup. Toronto allows 3.7 more points per one-hundred possessions when Anunoby is not on the hardwood. The Raptors are averaging 112.8 points per one-hundred possessions in non-garbage time the last three weeks. Tonight, they face a Utah defense that ranks twenty-seventh in the league in non-garbage time defensive efficiency. One of the major problems for Jazz on the defensive end of the floor has been defending in transition. In overall defensive efficiency in transition, they rank sixteenth and twenty-sixth in that category off live rebounds. The Raptors lead the league in points added per one-hundred possessions in transition. Utah’s offense ranks eleventh in the league in halfcourt offense which will pose problems for the twentieth ranked halfcourt defense of the Raptors. Utah averages the scoring the fourth most points per game in the league this season with an average of 117.5 points per game. But the Jazz defense allows 116.3 points per game which has them ranked twenty-first in the league. The TPR Index projects a game total of 238.4 points. The MM projects a total point differential of +7.96 against the current total range. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 8.3 with a transitional average of 43.52. The SIM Matrix has the OVER with a 73.97 percent advantage against the oddsmakers total in this contest. The Raptors installed as a road underdog and coming off an ATS loss and going Over on the road are 59-34-4 Over. Toronto on the non-conference road in the current price range and coming off a SU/ATS loss and going Over are 14-3-1 Over. Utah facing Toronto coming off a SU win as a favorite and going Under they are 8-1 Over. Play OVER on NBA non-conference road underdogs in the current price range coming off a SU/ATS loss as an underdog and going Over, 120-68-3 Over. With solid support for the high side from both teams we will play this one to sail over the oddsmakers total on Wednesday night. OVER

The Big 12 Conference is back in action on Wednesday with the Cowboys of Oklahoma State traveling to Norman for their game against the host Sooners of Oklahoma. Both teams are coming off wins in the Big 12 SEC Challenge with the Cowboys defeating Ole Miss by twenty-two points and Oklahoma upset Alabama winning by twenty-four points. These two teams have already met once it happened just a few weeks ago in Stillwater. In that game the Cowboys were installed as two-point favorites and they defeated the Sooners 72 to 56. Last season a similar outcome with the Cowboys defeating the Sooners at home and then fell to them in Norman a few weeks later. Will history repeat itself tonight our numbers suggest the Sooners will once again avenge that earlier loss to the Cowboys. The TPR Index projects a point advantage of 11.73 points. The MM projects a point differential of +7.94 against the current line range. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 7.26. The SIM Matrix has the Oklahoma Sooners with a 73.90 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number in this contest. The Cowboys are not an explosive offensive team they prefer to play at a slow pace on offense and use their defense to win games. The Sooners are pretty well balanced, which was evident in their win over the Crimson Tide. That win should have given the Sooners some confidence that they seem to have been lacking at times this season. They will look to avenge that loss in Stillwater, and they have proven they can get the job done. We will lay the short price with the Sooners as they get another big win on their home floor on Wednesday night. OKLAHOMA SOONERS

The Kansas State Wildcats are on the Big 12 road Tuesday night taking on their instate rival Kansas Jayhawks. These two just met fourteen days ago and needed an extra stanza to decide the winner. The Cats were rolling in the first half scoring forty-four points and taking a half-dozen point lead into the Locker room at the half. Two key points that played a major role in the Jayhawks loss to the Wildcats. First even though Jalen Wilson drained thirty-eight points which was a season high for him it wasn’t enough. The Jayhawks could not make a trey they host six of twenty-nine from behind the arc. The second point is foul trouble which definitely played a major role in the victory for the Wildcats. Both Jr’s fouled out (Adams, McCullar) and Gradey Dick which made the stretch run and overtime very difficult for the boys from Lawrence. We are seeing the public backing the underdog here with around sixty-seven percent of the bets coming in on Kansas State. The smart money is backing the hometown avengers with the line movement going against the Jayhawks with an opener of Kansas -6.5 and it has now settled at Kansas -8.0 at most shops. The Jayhawks also qualify in our Reverse Momentum Matrix as the play ON team here as a contrarian home favorite. We are buying a negative spread team facing a positive spread team in an avenging situation. Kansas State opened their conference road schedule with a couple wins as underdogs, but they have since lost their last two away from Manhattan. The Jayhawks are a perfect 3-0 both straight up and against the spread in this series when they have the inferior record winning those three games by an average of twenty points per game. Kansas is also a perfect 4-0 straight up and against the spread when looking to avenge a same-season loss to their instate rivals winning those four games by double-digits. The TPR Index projects a point advantage of 16.98 points. The MM projects a point differential of +8.15 against the current line range. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 7.69. The SIM Matrix has the Kansas Jayhawks with a 74.26 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number in this contest. Play ON CBB conference home favorites of 5.5 or more points playing with same season revenge with a TPR advantage of 15.5 or higher and a MM edge of +7.75 or higher, 23-5-2 ATS including a perfect 10-0 ATS the last ten qualifying contests. With strong support for the boys from Lawrence we will lay the chalk on Tuesday night with the Jayhawks as they continue their winning ways against the Cats in this situation. KANSAS JAYHAWKS

The New Orleans Pelicans are in the middle of a three-game road trip that saw them lose to Milwaukee in the first game of the road trip losing 135 to 110 as eleven-point road underdogs. These clubs just met in the Big Easy a week ago with Denver coming away with a hard fought one-point victory. Since that loss the Pelicans have lost by nine points, ten points and twenty-five points. They are riding an eight-game losing streak straight up and a record of 1-6-1 against the spread over that span. The Pelicans are looking to avenge that one-point loss in the Mile High City tonight, but they face a Denver team that is also on a losing streak although the Nuggets is just two games, but it is a losing streak, nonetheless. New Orleans comes into this game with a net scoring margin of +1.5 which has them tenth in the league. The Pelicans are an average shooting team and really struggle from the outside where they convert just 35.7 percent of their shots. They are much more productive on the inside where they rank sixth in the league with over fifty-four points per game in the paint. The Nuggets enter this contest with a net scoring margin of +3.8 which has them ranked fifth in the league. The Denver offense has been the catalyst for their success this season. They enter this contest ranked second in the NBA in shooting percentage, converting close to fifty-one percent from the field. From the perimeter they lead the league shooting 39.6 percent. They have also been effective down low where they add fifty-five points per game. The Nuggets have the ability to make opposing defenses pay either on the inside or the outside and this should allow them to get a big win tonight at home. The TPR Index projects a point advantage of 13.22 points. The MM projects a point differential of +7.96 against the current line range. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 7.31. The SIM Matrix has the Denver Nuggets with a 73.90 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number in this contest. We know New Orleans coming off a SU loss and going Over in their last game and now facing Denver has a record of 8-20 ATS including a record of 0-7 ATS in the current price range. With solid support for the home team on both ends of the floor we will lay the chalk in the Mile High City on Tuesday night. DENVER NUGGETS

The Toronto Raptors are on the road playing the fourth game of their seven-game road trip tonight in Phoenix against the Suns. Toronto is coming off a 123 to 105 win over the Portland Trailblazers on Saturday night. The Suns also played on Saturday in San Antonio where they defeated the Spurs 128 to 118. These teams have played to the high side in their last two meetings here and the Over has cashed in thirteen of their twenty-four in Phoenix. The Raptors have eclipsed the 221-point combined mark in seven of their last ten games overall. The Suns are ranked twenty-first in the league in defensive fast break points per game over their last ten games. The Raptors offense is ranked ninth in scoring in that same category. This should allow Toronto to get some easy baskets. The Raptors are also really good at second chance points with a ranking of fifth in the league. The key to sending this one over the posted total may be the team’s ability to convert from behind the arc because neither of these teams have been able to defend the arc. Phoenix is ranked twentieth in three-point defense while the Raptors are ranked twenty-eighth in that category. Both clubs have a low pace and tempo rating, but they still manage to score points as evidenced by their numbers over their last ten games. Phoenix has trended to the high side of the total when facing non-conference opponents. If they are coming off three straight games as the favorite and now face a non-conference foe, they have gone 128-92-9 Over including 74-39-7 Over if they are playing at home. If the Suns are coming off three straight as a favorite and now installed as a favorite versus a non-conference opponent, the Over has cashed at a rate of 116-70-7 Over including 72-38-7 Over if they are installed as a home favorite in this situation. The TPR Index projects a game total of 228.6 points. The MM projects a total point differential of +7.97 against the current total range. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 7.05 with a transitional average of 42.1. The SIM Matrix has the OVER with a 73.94 percent advantage against the oddsmakers total in this contest. Play OVER on NBA favorites of less than -3.5-points in games with a total of 230.5 or less and a MM rating of +6.50 or higher, 80-48-5 Over including 15-5-1 Over the last 21 qualifying contests. With strong fundamental support and key tech elements all pointing to the high side of the oddsmakers total we will play this one to finish on the high side tonight. OVER

[CBS] The boys from the Queen City are on the road again this week in Kansas City where they will face the host Chiefs to decide who goes to the Super Bowl. The weather forecast for tonight is cold but no rain or snow in the forecast. The Bengals have held serve against this Chiefs team recently winning the last three meetings both straight up and against the spread with one of those coming earlier this season. The question is can KC turn that around and send the striped ones back to the Queen City? We expect to see the Chiefs advance for several reasons. The Bills seem to be a different team in the playoffs they just do not look confident or comfortable. Not just this year that has been a common theme for that team for quite some time. We were wrong about the Bills last week, but this is a completely different situation and team the Bengals face tonight. They will face a KC team that is confident and holds plenty of playoff experience. The KC offense is more talented and much more confident than the Bills offense. This KC team can beat you short, long or in the middle of the field. The Chiefs have the edge on both sides of the ball while holding a significant situational advantage. In Conference Championship games passing yardage has meant more than rushing yardage. With team having the edge in total offensive passing yardage over the last twenty seasons have gone 27-13 straight up and 23-17 against the spread. Kansas City holds the advantage in this department. Conference Championship playoff teams with an edge in defensive passing yardage allowed over their opponent have gone 23-17 straight up and 25-15 ATS in this round. Teams with the advantage in defensive pass efficiency are 24-16 straight up and 26-14 against the spread. Kansas City holds a significant advantage in both categories. Teams that allowed less yardage overall defensively are 23-17 straight up and 25-15 ATS in the AFC and NFC title games since the 03 campaign. While those that held the edge in yards allowed per play are 24-16 straight up and 26-14 against the spread. Kansas City holds the edge in both categories. Last week the Bengals patchwork offensive line did a nice job against the Bills defensive front. Tonight, will be a much different situation in that the Bengals offensive line will face off against the leagues second best team when it comes to sacking opposing quarterbacks. The Chiefs defensive front seven will pose a much bigger problem than the Bills did last week. The TPR Index projects a point advantage of 8.79 points. The MM projects a point differential of +8.16 points against the current line range. The SIM Matrix has the Kansas City Chiefs with a 74.22 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number. Play Against conference road teams coming off a SU/ATS win and going Under as an underdog versus a team with a win percentage of .667 or better, 12-31-1 ATS including 5-18 ATS as a conference road underdog. Play ON NFL home favorites in the current price range coming off a SU win as a favorite, 65-38-2 ATS including 46-19 ATS if they were at home in this situation last week. With strong support for the home team we will lay the short price with the Chiefs on Sunday night as they get a big win and advance to the Super Bowl. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS