Cajun Sports

[ABC] The Denver Nuggets are feeling much better after coming into South Beach and taking Game Three of the Finals after losing Game Two on their home floor. In that win they also made history with a pair teammates scoring thirty plus points and producing a triple-double in the same game. Seems like most of the public have decided the series is over as they back the Nuggets again in Game Four. This Miami team has responded each time during this postseason can they do it again tonight at home? Our numbers and this situation tell us they certainly have the opportunity to get a Game Four victory. The TPR Index projects a point advantage of 3.44 points in favor of the home team. The MM projects a point differential of -7.83 against the current line range. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 6.79. The SIM Matrix has the Miami Heat with a 73.96 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number in this contest. Denver as a road favorite coming off a SU/ATS win as a favorite are only 9-27 ATS in their next game including 1-10 ATS in the current price range. Miami playing at home and coming off a SU home underdog loss versus a .667 or better team are 14-5 ATS in their next game including a perfect 6-0 ATS in the current price range and 5-0 ATS if they also lost their last game against the spread. Play AGAINST NBA road favorites coming off an ATS win while going Under on the road, 42-83-5 ATS. Play AGAINST NBA non-conference favorites coming off a SU/ATS win as a road favorite while going Under, 59-110-6 ATS including 27-68-4 ATS if they are a road favorite. Play ON NBA home underdogs off a home game in which they had at least five turnovers less than their season-to-date average, 145-122-3 ATS including 8-1 ATS the last nine qualifying contests. The Zig Zag theory has been solid throughout the postseason this season with Denver winning and covering in that situation in Game Three. We look for Miami to respond with a big game tonight in Game Four. With significant support for the home team, we will take the points in South Beach on Friday night.

The Houston Astros continue their road trip arriving in Cleveland on Friday for Game One of their three-game weekend set against the host Guardians. Houston has lost three in a row having won the first game of a four-game set north of the border and then dropping the last three. The Astros will send Cristian Javier to the mound with his 7-1 SU record ERA of 2.84 and a WHIP of 0.990. Javier has a perfect road record of 3-0 WU with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of just 0.889. Houston is 36-17 in the past fifty-three games on the road, while going 4-0 in the last 4 on the road against teams with a losing record. Cleveland has struggled with momentum or the lack of it especially when they are coming off a victory, they are only 6-14 following a win in their last game. They are also 3-7 in their last ten series openers. The Guardians will send Logan T. Allen to the bump with a record of 3-2 SU on the season an ERA of 2.76 and a WHIP of 1.336. At home Allen has posted a record of 1-1 with an ERA of 3.68 and a WHIP of 1.50 to this point in the 23 campaign. Our TPR Index projects a run advantage of 1.52 runs in favor of the Astros. The SPMatrix has Cristian Javier with an average of 8.86 compared to Logan T. Allen who has an average of 6.27. Our next set of metrics looks at the overall Pitchers Power Ratings. Coming into this game and situation Javier has a rating of 134 while Allen has a rating of 111 with a league average of 100. The SIM Matrix projects a 73.98 percent advantage for the Astros in tonight’s contest. We look for the Astros to get back in the win column on Friday night in Cleveland. They hold the edge on the bump and at the plate in this particular matchup. Play ON MLB teams as a favorite before the All-Star break when they are off a game in which they scored five or fewer runs and lost by one run, 432-271 SU (61.5%)(+$4,102). Lay the short price with the better overall team on Friday night in Cleveland.