Cajun Sports

The Iowa State Cyclones riding a wave of public opinion and money sending them directly to the Sweet Sixteen after disposing of Kansas in the Big 12 Tournament. Well we are not going to follow those people because we are not that impressed with the Big 12. The Kansas team they defeated was certainly not one of their most talented and not one of their best jobs from the coaching staff either. The Cyclones are not going to face a small club where they can use their four-guard offense to run up and down the court the team they will face is big and strong. The Buckeyes should have little trouble controlling the boards on both ends of the floor against this Cyclones team. The TPR Index projects a point advantage of 1.71 points in favor of the Buckeyes. The MM projects a point differential of -7.47 with a line range of +5.0 to +7.5. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 7.42 with a transitional average of 41.06 and a conversion rate range 40.93 to 42.86. The SIM Matrix has the Ohio State Buckeyes with a 73.71 percent advantage against the spread in this contest. ISU is ranked 222nd in offensive rebounds per game, and Iowa State is only 4-7 as a single-digit favorite since early January. This Buckeyes team they will face is well-balanced having gone toe to toe with Gonzaga last year in the Second Round eventually losing 90 to 84 we expect a similar performance out of this Buckeyes team tonight. We want to play AGAINST CBB teams in the current price range coming off three straight road victories, 53-76-4 ATS including 38-61-1 ATS as a favorite in the current price range. Finally, we want to play AGAINST CBB teams in the current price range coming off three straight SU/ATS wins on the road, 26-50-4 ATS. We are going to take the points here as the Buckeyes take the Cyclones right down to the wire.

The Big Ten taking on the Pac 12 as the Wisconsin Badgers face off against the hottest team in the tournament the Oregon Ducks. The Ducks so favored by the public they went from an underdog to a favorite in their conference title game. They come in riding an eight-game SU/ATS win streak and in many basketball minds they are coming in with the right kind of momentum and should be a force in the tournament. Well we are not of that mind we believe they have taken advantage of low scoring affairs in a conference that does provide quality opponents on a consistent basis like the one they will face today. In fact, the Badgers love those low scoring knockdown drag outs, and this will play right into their wheelhouse. We know first round teams with five returning starters favored by less than a touchdown are 12-3 straight up and 10-3-1 against the number. We also know CBB non-conference underdogs coming off a SU/ATS win as a road favorite are only 84-113-3 ATS including 59-92-2 ATS as a road underdog their next trip to the hardwood. Oregon head coach Dana Altman has proven to be a money-maker in the NCAA Tournament with his teams posting a record of 15-11 against the number including 5-0 SU/ATS in first round games while coaching the Ducks. Although Altman’s Ducks have struggled in this situation when coming off a spread win of more than sixteen points winning just one time straight up in their last five qualifying contests. We want to play against CBB teams coming off three straight SU/ATS road favorite wins because these teams are only 6-23-1 ATS their next trip to the hardwood. The TPR Index projects a point advantage of 9.98 points. The MM projects a point differential of 7.86 with a line range of -1.0 to -3.5. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 7.12 with a transitional average of 40.15 and a conversion rate range 43.62 to 45.39. The SIM Matrix has the Badgers with a 73.66 percent advantage against the spread in this contest. We compared common opponents from this season and the Ducks posted a record of 1-1 SU/ATS averaging 69.0 points per game while allowing opponents to average 61.5 points per game. The Badgers went 3-0 both SU and ATS against the same opponents averaging 3-0 both straight up and against the number scoring an average of 66.3 points per game and allowing just 52.3 points per game. Of course, you need to look at the situations in which these matchups were played you should not blindly assume the Badgers had a huge advantage just based on those numbers. We didn’t do that we used our TPR/MM/SIM/MMF matrixes to determine the true value of those games and the Badgers do hold a solid advantage. With solid fundamental advantages and strong technical situations favoring the Badgers we will lay the short number on Friday as Wisconsin cools the hottest team in the tournament and sends them back to Eugene empty handed.

This matchup features a Number One seed taking on a Number Sixteen. Duke is a public team and one we would in most cases stay away from especially in this situation. There are exceptions to the rule though and here we have a Duke team coming in with a 3-3 straight up record their last six and four losses in their last five against the number. Duke with the return of freshman Zion Williamson are a much different beast and one that this overmatched North Dakota State team doesn’t have an answer for he is just too talented. Even if they could slow Zion the rest of the Duke players would pick up the slack in this one. Coach K will have his troops ready fully focused on the job at hand, they do not want to be on the wrong end of a Cinderella story on Friday night. The TPR Index projects a point advantage of 34.22 points. The MM projects a point differential of 8.06 with a line range of -26.0 to -28.5. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 8.99 with a transitional average of 42.53. In this contest we have an average conversion rate range of 3.91 and a projected range of 7.37 in favor of the Blue Devils. The SIM Matrix has the Duke Blue Devils with a 73.58 percent advantage against the spread in this contest. ND State is 26-43 ATS as a road underdog including 15-29 ATS if they are coming off a SU win. ND State coming off a pair of victories have struggled posting a record of 22-40-1 ATS on the road including 9-25 ATS as a road underdog. That number falls even further if they are facing a team with winning percentage of .667 or better their record in this situation is 5-17 ATS. Duke on the other hand are 17-7-1 ATS in the postseason coming off a SU/ATS win including 15-4-1 ATS if they are favored. We want to play AGAINST CBB postseason road teams coming off a SU win and an ATS loss while going Over, 40-61-2 ATS including 30-54-2 ATS if they are installed as a road underdog. We are going to lay the big number with the Blue Devils on Friday night as Duke rolls to an easy victory and advances.