Cajun Sports

The Boston Red Sox and the Kansas City Royals take the field on Wednesday afternoon for their third and final game of their three-game set. The Red Sox evened the series at a game apiece rolling to an 8 to 3 victory in Game Two Tuesday night. Boston has been somewhat of a Jekyll and Hyde team during the early portion of the season they are fortunate in that the Yankees recent slide and their victory last night over the Royals have put them atop the AL East standings with a record of 40-31. Their opponent came out of the gate favoring the wrong side of the ledger to open the 2017 campaign but a recent winning streak and run has put them back into the wide open AL Central race. The Royals are 8-2 their last ten trips to the diamond including last night’s loss to the Red Sox for a season mark of 34-36. The Red Sox will send Drew Pomeranz to the bump with his 6-4 record and an ERA of 4.19 on the season. Pomeranz last start was also on the road he took the bump in Houston went six innings allowing one earned run in a 2 to 1 victory over the Astros. The Red Sox have cashed in three of his last four trips to the hill and all three victories came away from home with Pomeranz tossing eighteen innings allowing just three earned runs in those three victories. The Royals will hang their hopes of a victory on Ian Kennedy who is 1-6 on the year with an ERA of 5.03. Kennedy did not get his first victory until his 12th start and that happens to be his only victory to this point of the season. Prior to that win the Royals dropped three of his last five starts with Kennedy allowing at least four earned runs in each of those three losses. The news doesn’t get any better when looking at Kennedy starting at home where the Royals have lost his last four trips to the home bump. In his last two outings at home Kennedy has given up nine earned runs in just eight innings of work. Our BbTPR Index projects a run advantage of 2.20 runs in favor of the Red Sox. The SPMatrix has Drew Pomeranz with an average of 6.95 compared to Ian Kennedy who has an average of 4.41. Our next set of metrics gives us an overall Pitchers Power Rating based on the situation. In this matrix Drew Pomeranz has an average for this game of 122 and Ian Kennedy comes in with an average of 78 compared to the league average of 100. We want to play AGAINST MLB teams in the last game of a series when installed as a home underdog and their opponent’s starter has an ERA of four or higher on the season. These home underdogs are 62-91 SU winning just over forty percent of the time and producing a profit of +1117 units when you play against them in this situation. The Momentum Matrix has the Red Sox trending in positive territory while the Royals have dropped below the Mendoza Line in negative momentum territory. Combining all these factors makes this an easy call on the Red Sox in Game Three as they take the series in Kansas City on Wednesday afternoon.

The San Francisco Giants are in the ATL for a four-game set against the host Atlanta Braves. They will take the field on Wednesday night at Sun Trust Park (hard to get used to the new park spent a ton of time at the Ted and the old Fulton Cty Stadium over the last thirty+ years) for Game Three of this series with it all tied up after the Giants rebounded from a beating in Game One to snatch a victory away 6 to 3 on Tuesday night. The Giants were on a seven-game losing skid prior to that win last night and to say that victory was needed would be a huge understatement. The Giants have been unable to harness any consistent momentum during the early part of the 17 campaign. But they have provided us with a few very solid winning situations and tonight we have another with Jeff Samardzija on the bump with his 2-9 record and his ERA of 4.81. You may think we are crazy for thinking there is value with a starter whose record is that bad but there really is value here. Samardzija has been the victim of some bad luck and lack of support from his teammates it has not all been on him as far as his record is concerned. We note he has held teams to three or fewer runs in six of his last seven trips to the bump. Over his career versus the Braves he has a record of 3-2 SU with an ERA of 2.39 and a WHIP of only 1.088. The Braves will send Sean Newcomb to the hill with his 0-2 record and an ERA of 2.19 this season. Newcomb posted an ERA of 2.97 at Triple-A this season and is one of the Braves top pitching prospects but he has struggled for the most part since his arrival in the Bigs. Our BbTPR Index projects a run advantage of 2.07 runs in favor of the Giants. The SPMatrix has Jeff Samardzija with an average of 6.58 compared to Sean Newcomb who has an average of 4.66. Our next set of metrics gives us an overall Pitchers Power Rating based on the situation. In this matrix Jeff Samardzija has an average for this game of 119 and Sean Newcomb comes in with an average of 68 compared to the league average of 100. With strong support from our primary and secondary matrixes as well as powerful situational support all for the Giants we will back them on Tuesday night in the ATL.