Cajun Sports

[TNT] The Dallas Mavericks take their one win on the road to San Francisco after defeating the Warriors in Game Four 119 to 109 in Big D. The Mavs needed to change something down 0-3 and facing elimination. They needed an answer for the Warriors mixing up their defense with man-to-man and zone which kept the Mavs offense in check for the most part. On Tuesday night in Dallas the Mavs gave the Warriors a different look moving Luka Doncic to the wing instead of the lead which allowed him to attack with not as much resistance as he had seen in the previous three games. Doncic still scored thirty points, but his biggest contribution came in the assist department where he got his teammates open three’s finishing with nine assists. Of course, the Warriors will make adjustments in the event the Mavs try the same thing against them tonight. The Warriors are 8-0 SU at home this postseason, with an average winning margin of 118 to 103. They have never lost Games 4-5 consecutively after taking a 3- to 0 lead. Prior to the changes the Mavs made in Game Four their most recent trip to the bay area saw them with a real chance of defeating the Warriors on their home floor. In Game Two Dallas shot 52.3 percent from the field and converted fifteen of twenty-seven attempts from behind the arc. With that they carried a 72 to 58 first half lead over the Warriors. The second half they failed to shoot the ball as well and did not have an answer for the Warriors offense getting outscored 68 to 45 and losing Game Two. The TPR Index projects a game total of 223.6 points. The MM projects a total point differential of +8.28 against the current total range. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 7.97 with a transitional average of 43.8. The SIM Matrix has the OVER with a 74.59 percent advantage against the oddsmakers total in this contest. Dallas facing a conference foe in the current line range and coming off a SU/ATS win are 77-54-2 Over including 33-15-1 Over as a conference road underdog in this situation. The Warriors coming off two games where they were installed as underdogs and now play Dallas in the current price range are a perfect 5-0 Over. Golden State coming off an Over as a road underdog and now facing Dallas they are 16-6-1 Over including 10-0-1 Over if they are also coming off a SU/ATS loss. We should get an all-out effort from both teams tonight and their history tells us this will be a higher scoring affair than predicted. With significant support for the high side of the oddsmakers number we will play this one to sail Over the posted total by the bay on Thursday night.

The Phillies are in the ATL for a four-game midweek set with Game Four set for Thursday night. The Braves bats have done the damage after losing the opener 7 to 3 they have since won 6 to 5 and 8 to 4 the last two days. The Braves Dansby Swanson went 4 for 5 with two doubles last night to extend his hitting streak to eight games. The Phillies have a hot hitter of their own with Bryce Harper who also went four for five with two doubles in their loss on Wednesday night. Despite playing with a sore elbow Harper is batting .318 with ten home runs and thirty-one RBI’s. We look for tonight’s starters to slow some of that hitting down and force this one to go Under the posted total. The Phillies will send Aaron Nola to the bump with his 1-4 SU record and his ERA of 3.96 on the season. Nola has not won since his first start of the season although he has pitched better than his record would indicate. Over his last four outings consistency has been the issue he has two games where he allowed four or more runs and two games where he allowed two or fewer runs. His last outing, he gave up four runs in five and third innings of work against the Dodgers while striking out nine. We look for him to bounce back with a solid outing tonight. Nola has taken the bump twenty-five times against the Braves going 12-8 SU with an ERA of 3.32 while striking out 142 hitters over that span. Wright has rebounded with two solid outings since his poor outing against the Red Sox where he allowed six runs. In his most recent start against the Marlins, he tossed five scoreless innings giving up two hits with three strikeouts. Wright has faced the Phillies three times with a record of 0-2 SU and an ERA of 5.56. Our TPR Index projects a run total of 5.82 runs. The Teams MM Ratings have the Phillies with a projected run total of -1.07 below their projected total. The Braves have a projected run total of -1.18 below their projected total. The SIM Matrix has the Under with a 73.94 percent advantage against the oddsmakers total in tonight’s contest. With significant support from the bump and projected advantages at the plate we will play this one to come up well short of the oddsmakers number on Thursday night. UNDER