How to Bet on Baseball
Money Line
Customers wager on Baseball games using the baseball money line. This is the most accurate line in any sport. An example of a baseball money line is:
LA Dodgers -180 Park
Philadelphia 7 Schilling
If a line has a minus number in front of him, this means that it is the favored team. A (-180) means that you must lay down $1.80 to get back $1.
The above examples show the home team as the team listed on the bottom. The team favored is expressed as a negative money line and the underdog has the total runs listed next to the team. Each team has a pitcher listed showing only the same last name.
If you wanted to wager on the Dodgers, you would be laying or risking $180 for every $100 you wanted to win, and if you took the Phillies, you would stand to gain $160 for every $100 that you risked. Here again, the total is in a pick position and you would be risking $110 to win $100 (10/11), regardless of whether you chose the over or under position in the game. It is uncommon to see the total line to be favored in either the over or under position as was previously discussed with regard to half-time lines in Football. You also can specify starting pitcher(s) as follows:
Action — Your wager is, in effect, team against team, regardless of who starts pitching in the game.
Listed Pitcher — Both pitchers scheduled to start must throw at least one pitch for your wager to have action.
Selected Pitcher — You are wagering on one pitcher to start in the game, either your pitcher or the other teams pitcher.
Runline
A runline is baseball´s version of a pointspread. In football and basketball pointspreads, the odds are usually at a standard of -110, and the spread itself is typically moved to balance action. In baseball, the spread itself is fixed at -1.5 runs, and the attached odds are changed to balance action. Baseball run lines, are typically listed as the favorite -1.5 runs or the underdog +1.5 runs. In other words, the favorite has to win the game by at least 2 runs rather than just winning the game. These baseball odds significantly alter the money line of the game.
The baseball run lines, give the bettor the opportunity of either adding to or subtracting runs from the score so the team does not have to win the game outright.
A short explanation as to why you would play the baseball run line, instead of the official line:
Pedro Martinez is pitching for the Red Sox and opposing Brian Meadows for the Royals. The money line is Boston -320 and the baseball run line, is Boston -1.5 -150. This means that you can bet Boston to win the game by more than one run and only have to lay $150 to win $100 rather than the $320 to win $100 with a straight money line wager.
These are the types of situations that I look for to use baseball odds, or run lines. It has been my experience that using baseball odds, or run lines, with heavy favorites can be an effective way of betting on the heavy favorite without having to risk a heavy loss. By taking your time and doing some research, you will find that there are many strong pitchers and teams that win big when they win.
Therefore, you can use the baseball odds to make these bets more attractive. What this means is that the Red Sox may be 14-5 with Pedro on the mound and 12 of those victories came by 2 runs or more.
Randy Johnson may have a great record but because his games always have huge money lines, you may end up losing money by betting all of his starts. However, by taking the baseball odds, or run line, you significantly reduce the amount of money you must risk.
Totals
Reading a Total Line most sportsbooks post a total and attach a money line along each proposition, the over or under. For instance if the Yankees and playing the Astros and the posted total is 9 runs, the books may post a 9 under -123 and a 9 over -110. Simply put, that means bet the under 9 and you will have to risk $123 dollars to win $100 and $110 to win 100 if you like the over. As you may have guessed the under may be a heavier public favorite due to the higher odds placed with the under.
Is it Pitching?
As with handicapping Major League Baseball for a money line or run line winner, starting pitching as well as bullpen ERA’s should weigh heavily in your decision on which way to go when betting the total. The best combination to look for is finding pitchers that carry similar ERA’s either both very high or both very low. For instance, if Randy Johnson and Paul Wilson were to face on another, the posted total may be around 8 or 7.5.With combined ERA’s of less than 7, the under may be a solid bet. That being said, there is a flip side to this angle.. The average public bettor may be quick to bet the under given the aforementioned ERA’s of both pitchers. A great handicapper digs further. Taking a look at the starters previous few starts can tell us a few things about the likely outcome of a ballgame. For instance, glancing at pitch counts can make a huge difference in a hurler’s upcoming performance. If his pitch count is well into the 100’s over his last few starts (this varies with each individual pitcher as some have higher stamina than others), there is a very good likelihood that the game could be turned over the bullpen awfully early. That means taking a look at bullpen ERA’s is extremely important as well. An unreliable/reliable bullpen or a team with a non-established/established closer can play a huge role in the outcome of total result.
Is it Hitting?
Sometimes starting pitching may mean absolutely nothing when betting a total. If you run into a set of teams that is knocking the cover off the ball, Sandy Koufax, Roger Clemens or Randy Johnson could be on the mound and it wouldn’t make a difference. Take for instance the red hot Yankees. The Yankees have a team BA in the mid 270’s but their last 10 ballgames have seen that number rise to the mid 280’s. As a result they have hit the over with their opponents 6 of the last 10 games. Overall team BA’s are not as important a factor when taking a look at the total in a ballgame. How a team has done overall the last 10 ballgames paints a much better picture on how a team is faring at the plate and how they will probably fare on the night in question.
Is it Location?
Yes, it is location. Location has a huge role in deciding the total of a ballgame. Unlike sports such as basketball and football, where the court sizes must be all uniform throughout the leagues, Major League baseball does not have specified rules on exact dimensions (aside from distances in the infield). In other words, the left field line at Yankee Stadium may be 5 feet shorter than the one at Comerica Park in Detroit. An example of how a stadium can play a major role in a total is Coors Field in Colorado. Now, dimensions aside, the ball carries awfully well in the thin air of the Mile High City and due to this fact the run totals are much higher. The average number of runs scored at Coors is a very jumbo 14.4 per game. Conversely, the average run total at a stadium with a very deep outfield like Kaufmann Stadium in Kansas City is just 9.8. The under has cashed in for the Royals in 18 of their 26 home ballgames.
Anytime you can combine more than one factor, such as two pitchers with low ERA’s, at Kaufmann Stadium with teams that are hitting in the low 270’s, you have the makings for an under call as long as the price is right. Keep in mind it’s rare you will ever see a total posted under 7, this is where the bettor has an advantage. Take what the dealer gives you and don’t hesitate to play a high or low total, numbers don’t lie, especially in the long run and especially in Major League Baseball.
.gif)