Our favorite time of the year it is football season and we are all geared up for another huge year on the gridiron. We are back for another year with our College Football System of the Week article on our website.
For those of you that have followed us over the years know that we speak frequently about overused theories when handicapping football. One of those is the use of revenge which has been overused and misused since Noah was doing the two by two on the boat. Over the course of a season this theory will be thrown at games where it doesn’t apply. Yes the baseline of the theory has been met where one team defeated another when they last played but that alone does not qualify a play on situation. If the handicapper or bettor had taken the time to research the situation they would have found in most cases there was no real value just playing the revenge theory. Just because a team defeated another team the last time they faced one another doesn’t qualify that game as a revenge game when it comes to covering the spread.
We are often asked about revenge situations in the NFL and the answer is the same each time the NFL with free agency and their scheduling seldom lend themselves to creating true revenge situations. The college game is much different in that most players stay for at least three years and they schedule their conference and non-conference games in a way that produces revenge situations if not every year at least every year or so. We find value in the college game with revenge situations whereas in the NFL it is nonexistent.
A few years ago I read an article regarding revenge it was one of the best I had ever read and I felt certain I would not forget the details or where I read the article. I take notes and keep pretty good records of these types of things because this is what I do for a living. For some reason I could not find my notes if I wrote them about the article or the location of the article itself. So what I have done is work with the database to try and find the parameters that the article had used in making the case for the use of revenge in certain situations.
I have been asked many times do avenging teams respond better when they lost the previous time the two teams met by a single point or if they were blown out and embarrassed with a huge score differential. There is a difference in those two parameters as well as how far back you go to the last time they played one another. We found that you should only go back three years because most of the players on the college teams that were involved in a possible revenge situation were normally gone after three seasons. These young men do not care what happened to the team twenty years ago but they certainly remember being embarrassed last year or even three years ago.
What we found were teams losing by a single point in the last three years were a 50-50 proposition against the spread in their next meeting with a record of 8403-8262-321 ATS (50.4%). Then we plugged in a blowout loss by seven touchdowns and the against the spread record jumped to better than fifty-five percent with a current record of 232-186-9 ATS (55.5%).
Our baseline system now looks at games where one team was blown out by their opponent by at least seven touchdowns in the last three seasons. We next wanted to know how the team getting blown out responded to the spread if they had not lost as bad as the oddsmakers had projected. What would this do to our baseline system and would these teams respond in the next meeting. What we found was if the team getting blown out had managed an against the spread margin of twenty-four or fewer points in the loss they responded in the next meeting producing a record of 75-48-4 ATS for 61 percent winners against the spread.
With our college revenge system in hand what upcoming games this season apply to the system. Here is a list of the games to watch for this season as they meet all of the requirements to be an avenging money maker.
September 30, 2017 Saturday Rutgers vs. Ohio State
November 11, 2017 Saturday Mississippi State vs. Alabama
November 18, 2017 Saturday UL-Monroe vs. Auburn
November 18, 2017 Saturday Kansas vs. Oklahoma
November 25, 2017 Saturday South Carolina vs. Clemson
Keep this system in your pocket for future use as it has paid dividends dating all the way back to the 1980 season which is as far back as our database goes. Also remember to check out these games that are coming up this season, revenge alone is not reason enough to play ON any team but this should help put you on a few solid winning situations as well as keep you off a few bad ones as well.
Have a great season and remember to check back each week for our College System of the Week article. Cajun Sports won the Sports Monitor NFL Season Championship last year with a record of 49-17-2 ATS for 74.2 percent winners and a profit of +22,528 units. Make sure you join us for all of our NFL and College Football Best Bets.